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Prediction markets for Advanced Energy

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60.22%chance

8020308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1441

335

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?

Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM

8.11%chance

214679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3366

297

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.89%chance

324286

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1764

715

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

231971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

270

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.74%chance

291727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

918

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.18%chance

19899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

921

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.94%chance

14386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

960

Is it possible to build a Bussard ramjet?

Nov 15, 7:24 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19%chance

10171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

958

Which energy production method should we prioritize advancing?

Nov 14, 7:51 PM

240

Within nuclear energy, we should focus more on advancing progress in:

Nov 14, 7:52 PM

120

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