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Prediction markets for Advanced Energy

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

60%chance

7214451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1437

338

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.18%chance

5112040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

891

Is there a Dyson-like megastructure around Tabby’s Star?

Jun 29, 11:06 AMJun 30, 11:02 AM

9.28%chance

214429

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3126

320

Will a spacecraft capable of propulsion above 1% the speed of light be achieved before 2040?

Mar 17, 1:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.89%chance

211909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

221

Will humanity establish the foundations for a Type 1 civilization by the end of the 21st century?

Dec 31, 8:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.61%chance

281702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

938

Will the Sun be substantially disassembled before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.87%chance

231272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

931

[Making Sense: Peter Zeihan] Will the german state cease to exist before 2070?

Feb 23, 8:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.25%chance

18894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

922

By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.

Aug 6, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.33%chance

13356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

965

Is it possible to build a Bussard ramjet?

Nov 15, 7:24 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19%chance

10171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

958

Will the levelized cost of electricity from advanced nuclear be less than $60/MWh by 2030 (in the US)?

Dec 18, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

8134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

195

178

Which energy production method should we prioritize advancing?

Nov 14, 7:51 PM

230

Within nuclear energy, we should focus more on advancing progress in:

Nov 14, 7:52 PM

120

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