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Prediction markets for Advanced Navigation

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.36%chance

18925011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

510

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.65%chance

8613693

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2299

1040

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2035?

Dec 29, 8:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.17%chance

141714

OptionVotes

NO

YES

563

452

Will a robot demonstrate exceptional speed, versatility, and performance in extreme environments by 2040?

Mar 19, 9:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.99%chance

291162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

787

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 22, 11:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.24%chance

231132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

717

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2027?

Jul 8, 1:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.32%chance

161113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1454

814

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2029?

Jul 9, 11:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.99%chance

15825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

892

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

72.46%chance

17437

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

970

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2028?

Jul 9, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.73%chance

3290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

884

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