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Prediction markets for Advantage

Which countries will President Trump say are taking advantage of the USA?

Mar 8, 2:51 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

398334

OptionProbability

Israel

Ireland

India

Mexico

China

Denmark

Australia

Japan

Panama

Ukraine

Haiti

Germany

Poland

France

Russia

USA

New Zealand

South Sudan

Canada

Lesotho

99

50

50

39

37

35

32

27

27

26

23

16

13

12

11

9

7

2

1

1

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.47%chance

16762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

947

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

17738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

How big is the advantage of being transgender (if any) compared to height advantage in women's volleyball?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMMar 15, 10:59 PM

11556

OptionProbability

More than 10 cm

Between 2.5 cm and 10 cm

Less than 2.5 cm, or a disadvantage of less than 2.5 cm

A disadvantage of between 2.5 and 10 cm

A disadvantage of more than 10 cm

47

23

19

6

5

AI plays large role in determining how to mix heavy elements into alloys to take advantage of quantum properties by 2030

Jun 8, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.87%chance

10420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

148

Will research demonstrate an advantage to uninterpretable CoT before 2030?

Mar 15, 11:34 AMJan 31, 8:59 PM

74.92%chance

9308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Having more children will grant Chinese citizens a tax advantage through 2030

Aug 28, 7:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.49%chance

7201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

54

Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?

Oct 17, 2:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.47%chance

10161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

164

Will "Comparative advantage & AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 5, 2:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will "Epistemic advantages of working as a moderate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 6:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

Apr 8, 8:57 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38%chance

49

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17

10

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