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Prediction markets for Advantage

Which countries will President Trump say are taking advantage of the USA?

Mar 8, 2:51 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

398548

OptionProbability

Israel

Japan

Canada

China

Ireland

India

Mexico

Denmark

Australia

Panama

Ukraine

Haiti

Germany

Poland

France

Russia

USA

New Zealand

South Sudan

Lesotho

99

93

92

91

50

50

39

35

32

27

26

23

16

13

12

11

9

7

2

1

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.76%chance

161012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

679

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

18748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

How big is the advantage of being transgender (if any) compared to height advantage in women's volleyball?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMMar 15, 10:59 PM

13677

OptionProbability

More than 10 cm

Less than 2.5 cm, or a disadvantage of less than 2.5 cm

Between 2.5 cm and 10 cm

A disadvantage of between 2.5 and 10 cm

A disadvantage of more than 10 cm

39

33

19

5

4

AI plays large role in determining how to mix heavy elements into alloys to take advantage of quantum properties by 2030

Jun 8, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.87%chance

10420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

148

Having more children will grant Chinese citizens a tax advantage through 2030

Aug 28, 7:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91%chance

8326

OptionVotes

NO

YES

344

34

Will research demonstrate an advantage to uninterpretable CoT before 2030?

Mar 15, 11:34 AMJan 31, 8:59 PM

70.05%chance

10320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?

Oct 17, 2:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.73%chance

13227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

347

165

Will "Epistemic advantages of working as a moderate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 6:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will "Comparative advantage & AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 5, 2:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

Apr 8, 8:57 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

29.06%chance

733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20

8

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