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Prediction markets for Advantage

Which countries will President Trump say are taking advantage of the USA?

Mar 8, 2:51 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

388189

OptionProbability

Israel

Ireland

India

Mexico

China

Ukraine

Australia

Panama

Germany

France

Denmark

Japan

Poland

USA

New Zealand

Russia

Haiti

South Sudan

Canada

Lesotho

99

50

50

49

49

34

32

27

24

16

15

13

13

9

7

5

5

2

1

1

In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)

Jul 28, 1:21 PMJan 1, 2:08 PM

75.9%chance

14875

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1795

801

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

Jan 21, 12:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

17738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

938

How big is the advantage of being transgender (if any) compared to height advantage in women's volleyball?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMMar 15, 10:59 PM

11556

OptionProbability

More than 10 cm

Between 2.5 cm and 10 cm

Less than 2.5 cm, or a disadvantage of less than 2.5 cm

A disadvantage of between 2.5 and 10 cm

A disadvantage of more than 10 cm

47

23

19

6

5

Will a Democrat have the Electoral College advantage in any of the next three elections (2024, 2028, or 2032)?

May 4, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.8%chance

14423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

833

Will research demonstrate an advantage to uninterpretable CoT before 2030?

Mar 15, 11:34 AMJan 31, 8:59 PM

74.92%chance

9308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

173

58

Having more children will grant Chinese citizens a tax advantage through 2030

Aug 28, 7:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

80.49%chance

7201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

54

Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?

Oct 17, 2:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

25.47%chance

10161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

350

164

Will "Why comparative advantage does not help horses" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Nov 9, 3:55 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.31%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

86

Will "Comparative advantage & AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 5, 2:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will "Epistemic advantages of working as a moderate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 6:36 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.72%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

985

Will quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?

Apr 8, 8:57 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

30%chance

45

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2

0

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