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Prediction markets for AED

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.75%chance

462213876656

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23472

19108

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

100610473268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31064

8145

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

26.79%chance

22434827133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19008

4583

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.66%chance

22232043175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4490

4197

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5223

5020

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71%chance

703682076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

21853

4992

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.58%chance

1041626074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16994

12988

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.69%chance

378314312

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3162

882

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.71%chance

526216469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11814

5864

EOY 2030, how difficult will it be to get gender affirming care (puberty blockers, HRT) for a minor in California?

Jan 22, 7:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50148046

OptionProbability

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

Virtually impossible

46

27

20

7

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.3%chance

472128590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11108

10626

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144853

69696

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