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Prediction markets for Aerospace

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

4.08%chance

147481979

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8263

1925

Will SpaceX be nationalized during Trump's second term?

Jun 5, 9:53 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

6.3%chance

223539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3858

259

Which industries of the US stock market will outperform the SPDR S&P 500 Trust in 2025?

Jan 1, 9:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

142852

OptionProbability

Metals & Mining (XME)

Semiconductor (XSD)

Telecom (XTL)

Aerospace & Defense (XAR)

Biotech (XBI)

Pharmaceuticals (XPH)

Health Care Services (XHS)

Banks (KBE)

Capital Markets (KCE)

Homebuilders (XHB)

Insurance (KIE)

Retail (XRT)

Regional Banking (KRE)

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES)

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (XOP)

Software & Services (XSW)

Health Care Equipment (XHE)

Transportation (XTN)

96

93

92

91

82

80

73

25

25

25

25

25

24

20

20

20

15

13

Will Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost M2 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 11, 10:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91.79%chance

131777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

420

36

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

May 13, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8.25%chance

181394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

810

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.24%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

472

EU defense stocks vs South Korea defense stocks: EUAD ETF outperforms KDEF ETF in total return by end of 2029

Mar 10, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

46.66%chance

6751

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1069

935

Will there exist a competent window manager on MacOS before 2028?

Nov 27, 10:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.38%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

740

How long until Majid Mousavi is no longer Aerospace Chief of the IRGC?

Jun 15, 10:13 PMDec 31, 10:57 PM

5410

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before September 2025

Before August 2025

Before 2026

75

61

58

56

56

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.79%chance

5169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

58

Will Dawn Aerospace go public by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.8%chance

311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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