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Prediction markets for AES

Aella stock (permanent)

Jan 6, 6:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

878564530

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2604

2318

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

3.11%chance

181407616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2066

979

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

1.83%chance

5211172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2075

932

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2419

413

Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?

May 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

75.03%chance

1248322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1702

1569

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

Sep 20, 7:25 PMJan 27, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

194434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1781

178

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?

May 14, 2:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

313529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

788

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.5%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10255

9775

Who will be the next leader of North Korea?

Dec 27, 3:31 PMOct 4, 3:59 AM

13585

OptionProbability

Kim Ju Ae

Other

Kim Pyong-il

Kim Yo-jong

49

25

16

11

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

23.35%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2913

2605

Will Kim Ju-ae become the next leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un?

Feb 16, 6:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.63%chance

11247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

180

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