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Top stories

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Authors

13

9 months ago

Prediction markets for AfD

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

67.86%chance

8819470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1448

722

Will Somebody Try to Ban the AfD before 2027?

Jan 20, 9:57 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.39%chance

4118130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3884

577

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.46%chance

2512587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10935

9145

AfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?

Apr 24, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

295918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

686

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.66%chance

275814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3058

327

Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 10:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

395554

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

AfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?

Oct 17, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

143304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1968

508

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.89%chance

433297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

775

Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?

Jan 15, 7:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

91.89%chance

292823

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3208

526

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.42%chance

292672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

981

749

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.3%chance

41275

OptionVotes

YES

NO

255

39

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.41%chance

11987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2286

1778

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