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Top stories

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Authors

13

1 year ago

Prediction markets for AfD

Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.35%chance

5734209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11596

8623

Will Somebody Try to Ban the AfD before 2027?

Jan 20, 9:57 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5%chance

4521169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4110

564

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

73.51%chance

9119792

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1666

632

Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 10:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.66%chance

6113395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

806

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.76%chance

4410757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

543

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.31%chance

545947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

734

Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?

Jan 15, 7:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

93.15%chance

303228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3613

493

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.46%chance

292872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

963

949

Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?

Dec 7, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

161254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2541

1639

Will the next minister-president of Saxony-Anhalt be from AfD?

Sep 6, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.37%chance

8997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1260

793

If Saxony-Anhalt holds a snap election before 2028, will the AfD win an absolute majority?

Sep 8, 3:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.28%chance

6344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

892

If nobody is elected minister president of Saxony-Anhalt, will the AfD win an absolute majority in the repeat election?

Sep 7, 2:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.86%chance

378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

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