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Top stories

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Far-Right AfD Tops German Poll with 26% Support, Surpassing Merkel’s 29%, Amid Ban Talks and European Right-Wing Surge

Authors

13

4 months ago

Prediction markets for AfD

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.22%chance

2653835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

40660

7821

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.94%chance

8519270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1559

672

Will Somebody Try to Ban the AfD before 2027?

Jan 20, 9:57 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

4013453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2395

694

Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Feb 12, 9:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.39%chance

265299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2543

393

Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 10:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.66%chance

202786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

917

If asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?

Jan 20, 9:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.31%chance

382660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

635

AfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?

Apr 24, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.71%chance

152466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1899

527

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15%chance

242275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

459

Will the AfD still exist by the year 2030?

Jan 15, 7:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

85.33%chance

292257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2080

664

AfD wins absolute majority in 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?

Oct 17, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.88%chance

91796

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2491

401

Reform UK, French National Rally, and AfD all in power simultaneously this decade?

Sep 18, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.44%chance

41265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

38

Will the German political party AfD (right to far-right) get over 35% of the votes in the next election?

Jun 20, 11:12 AMJun 30, 11:10 AM

20%chance

8237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

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