Affiniti News

Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Jan 13, 8:26 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

262359

OptionProbability

Mass-movement political advocacy for AI regulation (like "PauseAI")

Preventing S-Risks

Wild-animal welfare

Mental-health / subjective wellbeing interventions in LMIC

Farmed-invertebrate welfare (shrimp, insects, octopi, etc)

Mitigation of AI propaganda / persuasion / "botpocalypse" impacts

Alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation

Research into digital sentience / the nature of consciousness

Climate geoengineeering

Preventing stable totalitarianism

Space governance / space colonization

Georgism (aka land value taxes)

Approval voting, quadratic funding, liquid democracy, etc

Cryonics & brain-emulation research

Human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection research

Charter cities / affinity cities / network states

Civilizational-preservation bunkers

Interventions motivated by anthropics, acausal trade, simulation arguments, aliens, parallel universes, etc

Will Apple purchase a controlling share of Tesla by 2028?

Oct 8, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.77%chance

211732

OptionVotes

YES

2037

860

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

Apr 8, 7:51 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

64.63%chance

191035

OptionVotes

YES

1142

932

What fraction of knowledge is inside the affine hull of existing knowledge?

Dec 4, 12:51 PMDec 5, 12:38 PM

22.08%chance

10882

OptionVotes

YES

1879

532

Will "The AFFINE Superintelligence Alignment Semina..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 14, 7:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.22%chance

2516

OptionVotes

YES

1500

936

Will EA be out of business within 3 years?

Sep 29, 4:54 PMSep 29, 4:45 PM

12.43%chance

9372

OptionVotes

YES

265

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 29, 3:11 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

26.9%chance

10282

OptionVotes

YES

409

180

Will the next The Sims game let Sims be gay?

Sep 29, 5:02 PMSep 29, 4:58 PM

76.74%chance

9213

OptionVotes

YES

182

Exit valuation of Affinity (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:35 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Will I regret AFFINE or school?

Mar 26, 3:14 PMSep 30, 3:09 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Name and describe this math operation (programming)

Feb 7, 2:24 AM

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Which three cause areas will get the most EA funding before 2030?

Will Apple purchase a controlling share of Tesla by 2028?

Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?

What fraction of knowledge is inside the affine hull of existing knowledge?

Will "The AFFINE Superintelligence Alignment Semina..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will EA be out of business within 3 years?

Will Charter Cities / Affinity Cities / Network States get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will the next The Sims game let Sims be gay?

Exit valuation of Affinity (YC S23)?

Will I regret AFFINE or school?

Name and describe this math operation (programming)

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