Affirm News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

The US leaves the World Health Organization

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

New James Bond actor is presented

Fair elections in 2028

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Kennedy Center goes bankrupt

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A new supreme court justice appointed

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

US national bitcoin reserve created

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

trump gets hospitalized

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Vances have another kid

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

USA experiences a recession.

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump and Obama shake hands

Kennedy Center is repurposed

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Dow rises above 65,000

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Trump gets covid (again)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

10% fewer government agencies

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

New national park created

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Kennedy Center is demolished

Trump announces he is tired of winning

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Joe Biden dies

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Another pandemic

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

American Manned Lunar Landing

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

Trump proposes renaming or demolishing the Kennedy SPACE Center

The department of education gets desolved

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

NATO invokes Article 5

US Treasury 10-year bond rate > 7%

Trump gets shot

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

"covfefe" posted again

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump threatens Israel with military action

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

A national ban on gender-affirming care

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

War is declared against another nation

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Constitutional Amendment

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump drinks a beer

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

About the same as in 2024

Notably easier than in 2024

Notably more difficult than in 2024

A person has a moral right to own a gun

We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

Other

Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

Being a billionaire is morally wrong

The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

It is not possible to multitask

Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

Tech bros are really, really annoying

Capitalism has done far more harm than good

Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

California is wildly overrated.

Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

Music is a net negative for humanity

Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

Abortion is morally wrong

jskf's password is ***************

The first American moon landing was faked

There is no Dog

Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

Cars should not have sound systems

AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

Pet ownership is morally wrong

LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

Cascadia should be an independent country

Children should not be raised in nuclear families

The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

The next American moon landing will be faked

Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

Cars are a societal net negative

Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

NO

NO

YES

Conversion therapy

Gender-affirming care for minors

Anti-discrimination laws

Editing gender markers on government documents

Transgender bathroom rights

Coverage of gender-affirming care

LGBT+ topics in schools

Transgender athletes

Drag shows and/or gender-non conforming expression

Gender-affirming care for adults

LGBT+ people in the military

Parental notification of LGBT+ students

Gender dysphoria in the ADA

Same-sex intimacy

No human-faced-scorpion locusts

No, death will still have an effect until 23-SEPT-2028

The mark will not appear before 23-SEPT-2028

No false-prophet will appear

No whore will appear

No Two Witnesses will appear

One or more or all of the negatory responses will be the case until and/or after 23-SEPT-2068, meaning nothing of the above will have happened before the two listed dates

No temple before 23-SEPT-2028

Yes temple before 23-SEPT-2028

The Two Witnesses will start blowing people on fire before 23-SEPT-2028

The mark will appear before 23-SEPT-2028

One or more or all of the affirmative responses except will occur before 23-SEPT-2068

The whure of Babylon is some other woman

Yes human-faced-scorpion locusts before 23-SEPT-2028

Yes, death with evade being effective at all, before 23-SEPT-2028

Elon Musk is the False Prophet

The new Pope Leo will be either the prophesied last-pope and/or the False Prophet

NO

NO

YES