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Top stories

Apple Rejects Musk Claim It Favors ChatGPT in App Store Rankings

Apple Rejects Musk Claim It Favors ChatGPT in App Store Rankings

Authors

14

9 months ago

Prediction markets for AFP

Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?

Mar 22, 1:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24148516

OptionProbability

No

Yes

99

1

Regime change in Cuba by 2030?

Jan 3, 8:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

14926583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

869

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 3:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.79%chance

7315633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

731

123

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.31%chance

467164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

940

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37.78%chance

422734

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

171

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26%chance

322178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

777

Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?

Apr 3, 5:21 PMNov 5, 12:00 AM

53.25%chance

251222

OptionVotes

NO

YES

272

80

Zelenskyy dies by end of 2026?

Nov 17, 1:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.07%chance

8241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will the government of a European country propose to withdraw from NATO before August 1, 2026?

Apr 7, 11:50 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

15.64%chance

6201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

43

Will any country in the world have brain preservation as part of its healthcare system by 2040?

May 13, 6:05 PMDec 30, 10:59 PM

26.28%chance

787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

461

350

Will Jean-Jacques Goldman appear in any form during Celine Dion's Paris La Defense Arena concerts (Sep-Oct 2026)?

May 3, 8:17 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

36.55%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

37

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