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Prediction markets for African Union

United States of Africa Established By?

Jun 16, 2:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61209

OptionProbability

Before 2100

Before 2070

Before 2080

Before 2090

Before 2060

Before 2050

Before 2040

66

50

50

50

41

23

6

When will the East African Community have a single currency?

Dec 3, 4:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81098

OptionProbability

After 2031 or never

2025-2030

2023-2024

Other

63

18

11

9

Will there be a new currency union in Africa by 2040?

Sep 4, 9:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

56.89%chance

11596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

54

How many UN members will recognize Somaliland at the end of 2026?

Dec 30, 1:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8472

OptionProbability

0–1

2

3

4 +

57

30

7

6

Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?

Jan 21, 6:19 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.63%chance

7448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

The African Union with be a major world player in and of itself by Jan 1 2030

Apr 1, 3:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17%chance

8402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

93

Will any African countries federate/merge by 2040?

Sep 4, 10:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58.08%chance

10287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

77

The Ministry for the Future Predictions: will there be a cryptocurrency tied to CO2 capture and storage by 2040?

Feb 8, 12:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.73%chance

11204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

980

Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?

Apr 19, 8:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

7128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

when will there be peace in Sudan and South Sudan? (includes both internal and external conflicts)

Apr 20, 12:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

256

OptionProbability

2032 and over

2028-2029

2030-2031

2026-2027

31

29

29

10

Will at least 40 countries recognize the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic on Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 21, 3:11 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

33.88%chance

450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

68

Will Spain close indefinitely the land borders with Morocco before 2030?

Aug 25, 10:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.55%chance

543

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

92

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