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Prediction markets for AG

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

23.57%chance

18011021758

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17814

9288

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

15.89%chance

286686677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22659

4871

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 24, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39%chance

259260233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2102

2077

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

13.96%chance

279185934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1453

990

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.32%chance

86134186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109153

17619

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

52.87%chance

25094199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1579

724

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.8%chance

5626924

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114667

87209

Will Deutsche Bank AG be bailed out by the German government before 2026?

Mar 25, 12:30 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2.61%chance

185941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6575

490

Will Sam Altman become more cautious about AGI/ASI development after having a child?

Nov 9, 2:29 PMJul 31, 9:59 PM

49.22%chance

243307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10581

9400

Will Ag-doped lead-oxide be proven to be superconductive at room temperature by 2027?

Aug 5, 3:23 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.4%chance

211601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

880

AG

Feb 1, 5:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64.86%chance

8431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

119

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