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Prediction markets for Age

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 24, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.08%chance

265263679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2152

2046

By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 19, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.34%chance

401247110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4069

3553

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

970

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJun 16, 6:29 PM

15%chance

3241371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

979

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.25%chance

4033292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39230

3870

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3019776

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

95

3

2

1

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.63%chance

15219516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1847

1381

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

256660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

816

By 2040, will there be a cure to aging?

Feb 16, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.9%chance

253527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

1146

Will GiveWell's recommendations age poorly, by 2026?

Nov 24, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

362540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3755

764

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

937

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.38%chance

27558

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2247

1847

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