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Prediction markets for Age

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 24, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43%chance

266264029

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2217

1902

By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 19, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11%chance

401248260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4192

3537

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

970

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJun 16, 6:29 PM

15.86%chance

3341381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

962

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3121224

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

97

2

1

1

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

1481

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.42%chance

238056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5412

3201

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.72%chance

266730

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

804

By 2040, will there be a cure to aging?

Feb 16, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.06%chance

263802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

986

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

937

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

29621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2161

1890

What percent of those taking rapamycin to slow aging will comment a positive or neutral review?

Sep 5, 10:30 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

56.24%chance

14466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1453

1085

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