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Prediction markets for Age

By 2050, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 24, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

272265498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2400

1682

By 2030, will there be a cure to aging?

Nov 19, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.21%chance

406251341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4507

3500

What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?

Jun 18, 1:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24.58%chance

4965814

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

970

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJun 16, 6:29 PM

10.35%chance

3442887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

917

Will Mamdani stop implementing policies that require all children in New York to learn Arabic numerals at an early age?

Nov 28, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3122287

OptionProbability

NO

Other

YES

Only YES and NO are the main outcomes. All other options would not affect the main YES or NO outcomes.

95

3

2

1

Will a senolytic drug be used clinically to slow, prevent, or reverse aging by the end of 2033?

Apr 10, 12:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.09%chance

15319616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1722

1481

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.05%chance

3013200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8798

4686

Will a therapy that substantially slows down or reverses the aging process in humans be developed before 2040?

Mar 17, 12:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.12%chance

276740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

814

By 2040, will there be a cure to aging?

Feb 16, 6:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.33%chance

364643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1598

877

What percentage will Gallup report as bisexual among U.S. adults age 18–29 in its 2026 data?

Sep 29, 12:05 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

533578

OptionProbability

14.0%–15.9%

16.0%–17.9%

18.0% or higher

12.0%–13.9%

Under 10.0%

10.0%–11.9%

42

37

10

9

1

1

Will a laboratory mouse reach 8 years of age by the end of 2030?

Dec 27, 8:26 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.54%chance

16650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

937

If Leonardo DiCaprio has a girlfriend after Vittoria Ceretti, will she be less than half DiCaprio's age at the time?

Mar 10, 7:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

29621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2161

1890

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