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AGEN News

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.68%chance

301639757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2690

2506

Gorosei Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

179179448

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3880

1628

Admiral Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

236124892

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3789

1501

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3573975

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

55

25

19

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.23%chance

7627100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1995

1859

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

246962

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Eliezer Yudkowsky

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Yann LeCun

40

11

6

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

46%chance

384735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

923

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

63.8%chance

233030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1868

1229

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

34.19%chance

251624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

362

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

57%chance

11831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

872

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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