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Prediction markets for AGEN

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

326670222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

2288

Gorosei Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

179179546

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3782

1638

Admiral Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

236125018

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3663

1510

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.16%chance

26682672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8636

4842

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

71.5%chance

9317056

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.99%chance

7516436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12246

8166

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

287407

OptionProbability

Other

Ben Goertzel

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Paul Christiano

John Wentworth

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Janus

Alex Turner

Evan Hubinger

davidad

Buck Shlegeris

Vanessa Kosoy

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Yann LeCun

60

5

5

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

49.18%chance

466533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

984

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.65%chance

135870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5679

2185

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.96%chance

41621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2851

560

Which of these models will Opus 5.5 beat on arena.ai in Agent Arena in a week?

Sep 23, 12:38 PMSep 30, 12:37 PM

00

OptionProbability

GPT-6 Astra

Claude 5.1 Fable

55

45

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