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AGEN News

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68%chance

322658469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2787

2288

Gorosei Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

179179546

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3782

1638

Admiral Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

236125018

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3663

1510

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4177849

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

58

24

9

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

24972874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7846

5630

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.52%chance

639493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11868

8426

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

287406

OptionProbability

Other

Ben Goertzel

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Paul Christiano

John Wentworth

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Janus

Alex Turner

Evan Hubinger

davidad

Buck Shlegeris

Vanessa Kosoy

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Yann LeCun

61

5

5

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?

Apr 19, 2:14 AMJan 7, 11:59 PM

24.33%chance

485449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1764

567

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

59.93%chance

395035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

74.75%chance

254460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2467

967

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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