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Prediction markets for AGEN

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66%chance

323660276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2858

2143

Gorosei Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

179179546

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3782

1638

Admiral Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

236125018

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3663

1510

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4281215

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

81

77

70

65

51

20

5

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7852

5623

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Apr 26, 5:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.05%chance

659608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11983

8345

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

287407

OptionProbability

Other

Ben Goertzel

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Paul Christiano

John Wentworth

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Janus

Alex Turner

Evan Hubinger

davidad

Buck Shlegeris

Vanessa Kosoy

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Yann LeCun

60

5

5

5

5

4

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?

Apr 19, 2:14 AMJan 7, 11:59 PM

22%chance

485582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

531

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

84.8%chance

315520

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3468

721

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

59.93%chance

395035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

33.96%chance

261629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1562

359

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

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