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Prediction markets for Agency AI

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.63%chance

2733820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24158

4139

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.65%chance

9122191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14513

8421

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

199687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8375

385

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.16%chance

547021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3243

194

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

43.17%chance

223650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4443

3625

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.81%chance

253167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2077

481

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.42%chance

412128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1639

217

Will Euclid space telescope lower my credence in the standard model of cosmology?

Jul 23, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.74%chance

321956

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6059

5939

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

371189

OptionProbability

European Union

China (mainland)

Spain

Other

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Canada

The UK

South Korea

USA

59

10

10

10

8

1

1

1

0

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

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