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Prediction markets for Agency AI

Will Trump apologize for bombing Iranian school?

Mar 12, 3:18 PMMar 31, 3:14 PM

2.21%chance

9528570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6648

150

Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Jan 4, 5:17 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.8%chance

5323348

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

955

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Nov 23, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.32%chance

8921183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13505

8680

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.25%chance

14918068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10080

9921

Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Jan 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.14%chance

5617995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1255

797

Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?

Jun 12, 7:30 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.86%chance

212211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1739

575

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.69%chance

321569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

363

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

Which country or union will be the first to open a national agency with the goal of regulating or monitoring AI?

Mar 18, 5:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

331031

OptionProbability

European Union

China (mainland)

Other

The UK

South Korea

USA

Canada

62

22

10

3

2

1

1

[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?

Oct 16, 1:24 PMJan 2, 8:00 PM

66.16%chance

20810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

987

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.97%chance

11799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

733

By 2030, will a major intelligence agency acknowledge using AI-based steganographic techniques for an operation?

May 20, 9:08 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

27.75%chance

10105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

993

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