Agentic Deep Research News

@teortaxesTex' DeepSeek V4 predictions thread

Sep 26, 11:15 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

224349

OptionProbability

uses some non-AdamW optimizer

Some image input (multimodality)

>= 50% on TerminalBench (https://www.tbench.ai/leaderboard)

>= 60% on BrowseComp (https://www.kaggle.com/benchmarks/openai/browsecomp)

1M+ Context

>=25T pretraining tokens

>= 73% on SWE-Bench Verified (according to epoch.ai)

>= 2 shared experts

Some variation of NSA (Native Sparse Attention)

>=16 active experts

Gemini 2.5 Pro tier or higher on FictionBench (90.6%+ at 192k)

>=512 experts

intra-expert communication

DS-MoE with adaptative expert count

>= 44% on Humanity's Last Exam (text only) at scale.com leaderboard

DeepSeek reports some results with a full-blown deep research agent, and emphasizes that this is the intended use-mode

>=52B active parameters

>=1.5T parameters

Releases before November

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

162610

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81602

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

7.18%chance

12858

OptionVotes

YES

395

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.12%chance

7734

OptionVotes

YES

740

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.15%chance

6217

OptionVotes

YES

301

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.53%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

210

190

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.81%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

198

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

YES

1128

886

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.69%chance

6123

OptionVotes

YES

184

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

378

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

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@teortaxesTex' DeepSeek V4 predictions thread

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

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