OptionProbability
Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A
@retr0id
@vi
@Quroe
@Bandors
@zhengkyl
@Eternal
@Cy
@8my41
@astroblob
@AlirezaAfshan
@AtharvPatil
Pat Scott @Stralor
@Celene
50
26
23
22
18
15
14
13
11
10
1
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1697
589
2027
2028
2026
2029
2030
2031
2032
2025
62
25
2
Before Jan 2028
Before Oct 2027
Before Jul 2027
Before Apr 2027
Before Jan 2027
64
54
48
30
20
3 years: Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won’t even be a surprise
1 year: It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code
1 year: We’re finally going to solve sandboxing
1 year: Kākāpō parrots will have an outstanding breeding season
3 years: the coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other
6 years: Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards
1 year: A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security
100
40
35
