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Prediction markets for Agentic Solutions

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138716

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

74

59

45

0

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91702

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

51

16

14

14

4

1

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

6.73%chance

14888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

415

74

How many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030?

Sep 13, 4:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13887

OptionProbability

At least 2

At least 3

At least 4

At least 5

At least 6

All of them: 7

98

91

84

66

50

26

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.41%chance

7738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

744

84

Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026?

Feb 2, 11:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.7%chance

9518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

407

25

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.61%chance

13332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

20

If another Millenium Prize Problem is solved in 2026, how many days between the solution and announcement?

Sep 14, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10278

OptionProbability

11-30

6-10

2-5

31+

0-1

52

16

14

13

6

Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?

Sep 11, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.25%chance

9269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

42

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.51%chance

4219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

193

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.46%chance

8214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

94

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