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Prediction markets for Agentic Solutions

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

118675

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

68

59

45

0

When will AI pass @jim's "agents benchmark"?

Feb 15, 5:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

295571

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

Other

2028

2029

2030

2024

52

25

9

4

3

3

3

1

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

162610

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

42

19

17

10

9

4

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81602

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

36

22

19

17

5

1

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

7.18%chance

12858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

395

76

Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026?

Feb 2, 11:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.88%chance

8405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

400

25

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

84.15%chance

6217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

301

84

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.53%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

190

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.81%chance

7195

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

56

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.69%chance

6123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

184

79

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Jun 21, 4:53 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

378

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2026-2027

2030-2031

2032-2033

2034-2035

2036-2037

2038-2039

16

15

15

14

14

14

14

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