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Prediction markets for Agentic Solutions

When will AI pass @jim's "agents benchmark"?

Feb 15, 5:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

3210943

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2024

2028

Other

2029

2030

78

8

6

2

2

2

1

1

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138716

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

74

59

45

0

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

926

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:03 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

182920

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030-2034

2025

50

31

6

5

5

2

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

Feb 7, 1:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

91702

OptionProbability

2027

2029

2028

2030-2034

2026

2025

51

16

14

14

4

1

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?

Feb 7, 12:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

7.18%chance

12858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

395

76

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 12:59 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

79.12%chance

7734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

740

85

Will Moltbook solve any open FrontierMath problems in 2026?

Feb 2, 11:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.8%chance

9480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

445

22

Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.3%chance

7267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

351

75

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?

Feb 7, 12:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.53%chance

3210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

190

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.26%chance

7191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

112

Will AGI be maximally impatient in trying to expand its causally-affectable portion of the universe?

Mar 26, 4:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.2%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

82

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