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Prediction markets for AGG

Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?

Feb 22, 8:28 PMDec 1, 10:59 PM

4.06%chance

336945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4153

680

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Mar 1, 12:24 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

41.34%chance

14661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

913

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will USA troops set foot in panama with aggressive intention by the end of 2026?

Feb 2, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.1%chance

19506

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182

55

Who will the next "consensus" polling aggregator be?

Mar 5, 4:17 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

15276

OptionProbability

Other

Silver Bulletin (or similar Nate Silver-ran company)

THERE IS NO CONSENSUS AGGREGATOR

RealClear Politics

Polymarket

Kalshi

Manifold

538

45

19

19

11

2

2

1

1

Will Mike Elko be the head coach of the Texas A&M Aggies going into the 2028 season?

Nov 27, 11:58 PMSep 17, 3:59 AM

27.66%chance

4272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

48

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

36.86%chance

13259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

964

By 2037, will China and Taiwan sign a non-aggression agreement?

Aug 14, 4:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.95%chance

5171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

87

Does Cannabidiol (CBD) aggravate Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms?

May 14, 12:51 AMMay 21, 4:59 AM

68.84%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Apr 1, 6:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.29%chance

365

OptionProbability

YES

NO

374

215

User Referred Profits Correlates to How Smart/Stupid a Given Influencer's Audience is In Aggregate

Feb 14, 4:36 PM

30

Do you think every market should also have a Metaculus-style aggregated forecast built in?

Mar 16, 4:17 PM

280

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