AGI Jobs News

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

Sep 5, 2:45 AMSep 12, 4:59 AM

22523754

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepMind

Other

The US Government (DARPA or Similar Org)

Elon's X.AI company

The Chinese Communist Party

DeepSeek

A single individual not listed here

Google Brain

IBM

Microsoft

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.36%chance

777061

OptionVotes

YES

2141

1245

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

1925

695

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

YES

1720

680

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

YES

1017

852

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

YES

1519

876

Will AGI reach mars before humans?

Jan 21, 1:46 PMJan 28, 11:59 PM

50.12%chance

11654

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Aug 3, 5:44 AMAug 8, 3:34 PM

12496

OptionProbability

🧠⚠️ Misaligned goals — AGI misunderstands human values and acts against our interests.

🕵️‍♂️💣 Used by bad actors — hackers, authoritarian regimes, or terrorists weaponize AGI.

🎮❌ Loss of control — humans can't predict or stop AGI’s actions anymore.

🌳💥 Environmental harm — AGI decisions damage ecosystems or speed up climate change.

💼📉 Job loss & chaos — AGI wipes out jobs, leading to mass instability.

Other

🌐🤝 No global coordination — nations or companies rush ahead without cooperation.

👺🐒 Humans are evil — AGI can only align the universe by destroying us.

🤯🔀 Unintended consequences — AGI does something harmful without meaning to.

🛑🔧 Weak safety protocols — not enough safeguards or oversight before release.

🚀💡 Runaway self-improvement — AGI upgrades itself faster than humans can follow.

🧠📲 Misinformation at scale — AGI spreads lies, manipulates societies.

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Nov 21, 9:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.53%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

1156

934

Jobs & Social Support After AGI [Predictions]

Apr 11, 3:57 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

11217

OptionProbability

Worse Unemployment

Regular Social Support / No UBI

Zero unemployment, zero UBI

Regular Unemployment

Increased Social Support / Little UBI

Massive Unemployment

Massive Social Support / UBI

AGI Jobs News

Prediction markets for AGI Jobs

Prediction markets for AGI Jobs

Prediction markets for AGI Jobs

What organization will be the first to create AGI?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Will AGI reach mars before humans?

❓ If AGI turns out to be a disaster, what will be the main cause?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Jobs & Social Support After AGI [Predictions]

Latest stories