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AGI News

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

40

1 year ago

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10771143313

OptionProbability

2028-2029

2027-2028

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2049-2050

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2026-2027

2039-2040

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2024-2025

2025-2026

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

17

15

13

11

9

5

5

4

4

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.41%chance

198384813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155442

22908

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

3.65%chance

350308151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4715

749

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

29%chance

348176669

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

904

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

51.66%chance

351142219

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

749

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.55%chance

259112244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2469

388

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.44%chance

12638679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12739

8335

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2519584

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Alignment relatively easy

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

New AI paradigm

Brakes not hit

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

52

49

48

41

40

38

35

28

28

20

14

14

3

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.78%chance

10812066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3025

1894

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

185405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

111

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