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Top stories

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

Meta Restructures AI Division Into Four Teams With $1B Hiring Spree, Midjourney Partnership, and Alexandr Wang Leading Superintelligence Effort

Authors

40

4 months ago

Prediction markets for AGI

Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?

Apr 13, 10:30 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

1.88%chance

18141118911

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102031

3309

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10631090689

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2028-2029

2035-2036

2049-2050

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2027-2028

2039-2040

2040-2041

2026-2027

2041-2042

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

12

10

9

7

7

6

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will the ARC-AGI grand prize (v1, 2024 dataset) be claimed by end of 2025?

Jun 11, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.05%chance

294872977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58819

2107

Will we get AGI before 2026?

Dec 10, 1:58 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1%chance

344304753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11985

737

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

291197589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3608

797

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106395

18257

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

16.24%chance

278136592

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1579

910

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.44%chance

275103327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1257

1128

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.54%chance

23797440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1640

605

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129891

76988

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

10422599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11634

10188

By how many years would AGI-induced transformative impact (defined as sustained global GDP growth of +5% annually) be de

May 18, 7:34 PMDec 31, 8:31 PM

00

OptionProbability

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 49

50 - 100

Above 100

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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