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Prediction markets for AGR
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
18.08%chance
10048532
OptionVotes
1573
1344
Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026
Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM
3728566
OptionProbability
31
19
17
13
8
7
What's an unconventional opinion or idea that you've encountered which most people might not agree with? [FREE RESPONSE]
Oct 9, 8:29 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
6114038
OptionProbability
20
18
12
6
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
By what years will I agree that "The Superalignment Problem has a technically elegant solution w.p. >80%”?
Jun 12, 6:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
215720
OptionProbability
61
56
49
46
38
29
16
10
By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
Mar 24, 9:58 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
10.79%chance
504293
OptionVotes
2524
616
Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?
Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
13.2%chance
153907
OptionVotes
3529
1289
By the beginning of 2040, will there be widespread agreement that social media "cancellation" was a harmful social phenomenon?
Dec 11, 2:31 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
67.29%chance
28793
OptionVotes
1072
942
By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?
Mar 24, 9:59 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM
76.73%chance
16429
OptionVotes
1074
961
If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
Feb 2, 1:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
34.44%chance
6380
OptionVotes
1380
725
Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?
Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
60%chance
13353
OptionVotes
1044
907
Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2025?
Dec 7, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
48.05%chance
6338
OptionVotes
1040
962
AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media
Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
45%chance
7326
OptionVotes
1106
905