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AGR News

    Prediction markets for AGR

    OptionProbability

    Perplexity

    Mistral

    Cohere

    Hugging Face

    Thinking Machines Lab

    Anthropic

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    OptionProbability

    A person has a moral right to own a gun

    We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

    GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

    The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

    Other

    Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

    Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

    Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

    Being a billionaire is morally wrong

    The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

    It is not possible to multitask

    Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

    Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

    Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

    Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

    OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

    The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

    There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

    Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

    Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

    Capitalism has done far more harm than good

    Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

    COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

    Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

    Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

    Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

    Music is a net negative for humanity

    Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

    Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

    Abortion is morally wrong

    jskf's password is ***************

    The first American moon landing was faked

    There is no Dog

    Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

    Cars should not have sound systems

    AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

    Pet ownership is morally wrong

    LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

    SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

    It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

    There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

    Cascadia should be an independent country

    Children should not be raised in nuclear families

    The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

    Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

    If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

    Tech bros are really, really annoying

    Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

    @Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

    Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

    We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

    SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

    Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

    The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

    Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

    Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

    It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

    Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

    This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

    We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

    Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

    California is wildly overrated.

    Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

    The next American moon landing will be faked

    Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

    We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

    Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

    Cars are a societal net negative

    Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

    Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

    Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.

    20

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    6

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    2

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    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

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    OptionProbability

    2050

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    2024

    61

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    49

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    38

    29

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    10

    Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

    Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    13.2%chance
    153907

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3529

    1289

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1044

    907

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1040

    962

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1106

    905

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