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Agriculture News

    Prediction markets for Agriculture

    Who will leave Trump's cabinet first?

    Jan 27, 5:09 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM
    9320899

    OptionProbability

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    RFK Jr. (Secretary of HHS)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Russel Vought (OMB director)

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of the Interior)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Scott Turner (HUD Secretary)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    Lee Zeldin (EPA administrator)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the CIA)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    Mike Waltz (or confirmed UN Ambassador)

    Jamieson Greer (US Trade Representative)

    27

    14

    9

    8

    8

    5

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    Will a fully synthetic, functional multicellular organism be created before January 1st, 2040?

    Mar 17, 3:02 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    27.44%chance
    839820

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2695

    815

    What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

    Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM
    599528

    OptionProbability

    Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

    Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

    Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

    Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

    Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

    Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

    Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

    Attorney General: Pam Bondi

    Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

    Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

    Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

    Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

    Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

    Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

    Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

    Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

    Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

    United States Trade Representative: James Greer

    Ambassador to the United Nations:

    Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

    Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

    Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

    Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

    Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

    President: Donald Trump

    Vice President: JD Vance

    76

    68

    65

    63

    52

    48

    44

    40

    35

    34

    33

    31

    29

    27

    27

    27

    27

    27

    27

    22

    22

    22

    22

    21

    9

    7

    Will the Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act pass?

    Aug 6, 2:34 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    13.2%chance
    153907

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    3529

    1289

    Which international organizations or agreements will the United States leave before 2029?

    Jan 22, 1:22 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
    213780

    OptionProbability

    Paris Climate Agreement

    United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

    World Health Organization (WHO)

    United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

    United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

    World Trade Organization (WTO)

    North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

    International Labour Organization (ILO)

    Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

    Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

    World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

    International Monetary Fund (IMF)

    World Bank

    International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

    United Nations (UN)

    International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)

    99

    95

    95

    80

    80

    72

    56

    54

    54

    49

    44

    43

    40

    36

    34

    17

    Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026?

    Nov 26, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    161824

    OptionProbability

    JD Vance (Vice President)

    Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

    Lee Zeldin (Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency)

    Doug Burgum (Secretary of Interior)

    Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

    Jamison Greer (United States Trade Representative)

    Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)

    Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

    Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

    Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

    Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

    Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

    Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

    Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

    Scott Turner (Secretary of Housing and Urban Development)

    John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)

    Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services)

    Russell Vought (Director of the Office of Management and Budget)

    Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

    Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

    Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

    John Ratcliffe (Director of the Central Intelligence Agency)

    Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

    99

    92

    92

    90

    89

    88

    85

    85

    85

    83

    81

    79

    78

    78

    78

    78

    78

    76

    66

    62

    55

    52

    50

    47

    If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

    Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    221641

    OptionProbability

    Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuchang campus

    Wuhan Institute of Virology, Jiangxia campus

    Wuhan CDC

    UNC

    Fort Detrick

    Wuhan Institute of Biological Products

    Wuhan University

    Other

    VECTOR lab in Russia

    Canadian National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, Manitoba

    Huazhong Agricultural University in Wuhan

    30

    15

    15

    13

    11

    5

    4

    3

    2

    2

    2

    Will Roundup be banned for agricultural food production use in the USA by 2030?

    Feb 15, 6:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    18.03%chance
    9286

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    222

    149

    Tehran Water Crisis Prop Bets

    Nov 30, 4:46 PMMar 31, 2:50 PM
    6235

    OptionProbability

    Will Tehran record less than 50mm of total rainfall from December 1st 2025 to March 31st 2026?

    Will the Iranian government officially announce daytime residential water rationing?

    Will the government announce plans to reduce agricultural water allocation?

    Will the government issue a mandatory evacuation order for any district of Tehran?

    Will the Iranian Parliament pass a bill to formally move the capital city from Tehran?

    Will the Iranian government import water (or sign an agreement to) from other countries to supply over 50% of Tehran?

    Will the government significantly raise residential water prices?

    Will the president or Supreme Leader publicly admit governmental mismanagement caused the crisis?

    66

    61

    50

    46

    37

    35

    28

    24

    Will less than 70% of agricultural land be used for farm animals by 2030?

    Mar 22, 6:20 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
    41%chance
    573

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    125

    98

    Will the Flannery Associates Solano county land be zoned other than agricultural by 2030?

    Aug 27, 8:51 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    65.35%chance
    771

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    190

    155

    Who will be the next minister of the Republic of Cyprus to leave their post?

    Nov 21, 10:45 AMFeb 5, 9:59 PM
    00

    OptionProbability

    Constantinos Kombos (Foreign Affairs)

    Makis Keravnos (Finance)

    Konstantinos Ioannou (Interior)

    Michalis Giorgallas (Defense)

    Athina Michaelidou (Education, sport and youth)

    Alexis Vafeades (Transport, communications and works)

    Giorgos Papanastasiou (Energy, commerce and industry)

    Petros Xenophontos (Agriculture, rural development and environment)

    Yiannis Panayiotou (Labour and social insurance)

    Anna Koukkides-Prokopiou (Justice and public order)

    Popi Kanari (Health)

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

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