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AI Agent Fund News

    Prediction markets for AI Agent Fund

    2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

    Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    79.08%chance
    382747

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1720

    680

    Economically-self-sufficient AI agent bets

    Mar 8, 4:54 PMMar 8, 3:52 PM
    7580

    OptionProbability

    Exists before start of 2035

    Any AI company deploys 1,000 self-sufficient AIs (using their own models) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

    Is a transformer according to current definition in this market https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-first-agi-be-a-transformer

    Exists before start of 2030

    conway.tech or web4.ai buys from/sells to/hosts at least some actually-self-sufficient AI

    Initially, Claude powers more agents than GPT or Gemini do

    A frontier AI company has already broken even BEFORE self-sufficiency is achieved

    Sends $1,000 to a useless human middleman at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

    Exists before start of 2028

    Sends $100,000 to a useless human middleman (who doesn't help the model in any way other than initial investment and deployment) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

    80

    74

    63

    59

    50

    45

    37

    31

    21

    20

    Will JRT (isotryptamine-LSD) enter the ITP by EOY2031?

    Apr 21, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    52.44%chance
    15

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    105

    95

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