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Prediction markets for AI Blocks

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

69.99%chance

8526818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1527

655

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

89.52%chance

10610059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2721

642

Will Artemis II fly before Starship Flight 12?

Jan 9, 5:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.97%chance

193566

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1603

624

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

Will ICE, including CBP, be involved in violent activities at the 2026 Super Bowl?

Jan 29, 6:04 PMFeb 9, 12:00 AM

39%chance

221405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

Labour Home Secretary publicly defy UK court ruling on deportation before next GE?

Jul 21, 9:57 AMAug 28, 10:59 PM

32.89%chance

6421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Feb 2, 9:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9333

OptionProbability

Before August 1, 2026

Before July 1, 2026

Before May 1, 2026

Before June 1, 2026

Before April 1, 2026

Before March 1, 2026

83

66

50

50

49

5

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

80

72

66

44

3

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Jun 8, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

33

How can I get this huge list of Google Photos bugs fixed? [currently a 43m long rambling video]

Nov 15, 10:47 PM

110

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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