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Prediction markets for AI Blocks

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

May 25, 10:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

74%chance

8728182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1687

593

Will Fable be reenabled for Europeans before Americans?

Jun 18, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.29%chance

1311190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8735

114

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Dec 18, 8:54 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.19%chance

10910199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2088

732

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.32%chance

315311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1113

899

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

68.29%chance

732820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1647

1011

Will the Gordie Howe Bridge open to traffic in 2026?

Feb 10, 7:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.34%chance

72659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2022

495

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will Ketanji Brown Jackson rule in favor of Virginia's redistricting

May 9, 1:20 AMJan 1, 2:19 AM

79.63%chance

5465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1435

857

Will GMail get blocked in Russia by the end of 2026

Jun 1, 8:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14%chance

5430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

918

will Niger directly sell nuclear material to France in 2026?

Feb 6, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.39%chance

7328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

137

73

AI to help design validation systems based on personal blockchains by 2050

Jun 8, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.23%chance

125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

33

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