AI Consult News

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.03%chance

9525701

OptionVotes

YES

2522

563

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Apr 1, 2:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90%chance

5613141

OptionVotes

YES

3243

446

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

YES

1461

556

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.68%chance

173564

OptionVotes

YES

1159

926

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Dec 18, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

263463

OptionVotes

YES

1956

520

Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026?

Jul 8, 8:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.99%chance

61048

OptionVotes

YES

1528

654

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Oct 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

16883

OptionProbability

AI produces highly-customized forms of entertainment

Other

AI is integrated into IDEs and provides suggestions to programmers

AI is used for drug discovery

Managers consult AI while making decisions

AI is integrated into compilers and makes code run faster

AI designs hardware for industrial processes

AI chatbots provide mental health support, boosting productivity

Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?

Mar 19, 1:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.66%chance

27632

OptionVotes

YES

141

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Nov 25, 9:20 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.54%chance

5431

OptionVotes

YES

1290

775

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Nov 21, 9:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.53%chance

15424

OptionVotes

YES

1156

934

Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032?

May 2, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.38%chance

7223

OptionVotes

YES

1166

858

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

Dec 5, 10:01 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75%chance

681

OptionVotes

YES

193

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Prediction markets for AI Consult

Prediction markets for AI Consult

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2028?

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?

Will the Great American AI Act (GAAIA) become law in 2026?

What will AI's contribution to the economy look like in 2030?

Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026?

Will the US recognize AI property rights under federal law before 2040?

Will the first AGI be built by Sam Altman?

Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032?

Will my job as a consultant in financial services regulation (UK) be significantly impacted by AI developments by 2035?

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