AI Engineers News

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.68%chance

7818600

OptionVotes

YES

2043

489

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

Jun 19, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

8514881

OptionVotes

YES

1225

816

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

Jun 20, 6:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

328618

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

2026-01-01

Later than that/never

2025-01-01

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.76%chance

766811

OptionVotes

YES

1891

1299

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

62.76%chance

576136

OptionVotes

YES

1334

630

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

141561

OptionProbability

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-related cyberattack

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

Sep 12, 2:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

30.86%chance

201193

OptionVotes

YES

1041

936

When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?

Mar 15, 1:53 AMMar 22, 3:59 AM

18951

OptionProbability

2027-2030

2037-2040

2024-2027

2034-2037

2030-2034

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

Jan 2, 7:39 AMJan 5, 7:59 AM

61.6%chance

10775

OptionVotes

YES

1266

790

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

7.26%chance

7598

OptionVotes

YES

357

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Aug 3, 6:57 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

40.89%chance

8472

OptionVotes

YES

1202

832

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Jul 3, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4201

OptionProbability

2028-01-01

2029-01-01

2027-01-01

Later than that/never

2026-01-01

2025-01-01

AI Engineers News

Prediction markets for AI Engineers

Prediction markets for AI Engineers

Prediction markets for AI Engineers

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?

AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2027?

When will the median software engineer working today be unemployable due to AI?

AI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

AI for AI 2: By when will there be an AI that can do "senior-level" ML engineering?

Latest stories