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Prediction markets for AI Existential Risk

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

55%chance

21950798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2545

1107

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.05%chance

377352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2593

386

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

33.94%chance

481657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

824

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

919

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Are AI and its effects are the most important existential risk, given only public information available in 2021?

Mar 24, 2:35 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

89.19%chance

14354

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1329

932

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

Which book(s) will win Will Kiely's $1,000 bounty by being the new best overview of AI existential risk?

Oct 2, 8:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4125

OptionProbability

"Obsolete: Power, Profit, and the Race to Build Machine Superintelligence" by Garrison Lovely

"Superintelligence" by Nick Bostrom

"Human Compatible" by Stuart Russell

"The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian

"The Precipice" by Tob Ord

"What We Owe the Future" by Will MacAskill

"If Anyone Builds it, Everyone Dies" by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares

43

0

0

0

0

0

0

OpenAI CEO doesn't think existential risk from AI is a serious concern in Jan 2026

May 19, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.85%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

67

Will "AI Control May Increase Existential Risk" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 22, 2:02 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

16

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

Do you believe that a rapid AI intelligence explosion poses a significant existential risk to humanity before 2075?

Jan 22, 4:53 AM

320

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