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Prediction markets for AI Express

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11390

5011

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.54%chance

1247563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2579

1807

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

773999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

832

Will Sun get a girlfriend before October 12, 2027?

Oct 16, 8:01 PMOct 11, 3:00 PM

28.09%chance

383511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5453

4042

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

50%chance

92240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

479

304

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.37%chance

281193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

958

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

66.37%chance

8523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1405

712

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

In 2028, will Democrat voters express more support for strict regulation of AI than Republican voters?

Jun 4, 8:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.78%chance

7277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

184

Among these theoretical mathematicians, who is most mathematically expressive? (representations for AI)

Apr 27, 5:34 PM

30

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