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Prediction markets for AI Express

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.23%chance

7627100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1995

1859

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.28%chance

1237513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2529

1814

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.53%chance

422182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

694

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

499

284

Will Rep. Thomas Massie run for and win Mitch McConnell's vacant senate seat in the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

17.22%chance

71572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2192

456

By 2028, there will exist an obvious place where digital nomads can earn a living by producing alignment data for AI.

Feb 17, 10:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.5%chance

121396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

492

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

In 2028, will Democrat voters express more support for strict regulation of AI than Republican voters?

Jun 4, 8:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.78%chance

7277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

184

Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?

Jan 12, 8:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.61%chance

334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

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