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Prediction markets for AI Express

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.91%chance

21928356

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4160

1161

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.28%chance

1237513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2529

1814

Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?

Jun 1, 4:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.72%chance

363699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2701

312

Will expressive negative opinions on people with AI partners be considered hate speech by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.96%chance

743637

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

834

Will the US Supreme Court reaffirm the ruling that generative AI cannot be awarded copyright by end of 2025?

Aug 19, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.02%chance

322151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1474

843

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

401996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

724

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

499

284

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

Will Rep. Thomas Massie run for and win Mitch McConnell's vacant senate seat in the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

31.54%chance

6522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1473

679

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

In 2028, will Democrat voters express more support for strict regulation of AI than Republican voters?

Jun 4, 8:52 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50%chance

6237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

234

144

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