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Prediction markets for AI Factories

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9436675

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

99

1

0

0

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

AI factories before 2030? [Remy Gangrien Vs. AI 2027 $10,000 bet]

May 29, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.42%chance

268589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2784

359

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1913

523

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

121866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

When will there be humanoid robots doing paid work outdoors in the US?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

91433

OptionProbability

Before 2040

Before 2038

Before 2034

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2030

Before 2028

After 2040

91

90

84

84

78

69

66

8

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.37%chance

281193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1070

958

Will Max Verstappen stop to Red Bull F1 end of this year 2026

Mar 30, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.67%chance

7833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

768

13

When will the NEO robot (or its cousins) catch its first body?

Oct 30, 2:40 AMJan 1, 3:38 AM

6649

OptionProbability

2027 Onwards

Jul 2026 - Dec 2026

Nov 2025 - Dec 2025

Jan 2026 - Jun 2026

91

7

1

1

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

Will we actually see someone bomb an AI datacenter before 2027?

Jun 11, 3:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.29%chance

9568

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1295

7

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