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Prediction markets for AI Factories

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

When will an AI figure out how to beat Factorio?

Sep 23, 4:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8315269

OptionProbability

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

2023 Jan - 2025 Jan

45

33

21

1

AI beats me in PvP Factorio during December 2025

Oct 30, 11:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

4512069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

AI factories before 2030? [Remy Gangrien Vs. AI 2027 $10,000 bet]

May 29, 3:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.42%chance

268589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2784

359

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

173003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

525

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.98%chance

91603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2480

403

Will a machine/ai uprising occur by 2044?

May 11, 11:04 AMJun 10, 8:59 PM

20.3%chance

271192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

957

When will the NEO robot (or its cousins) catch its first body?

Oct 30, 2:40 AMJan 1, 3:38 AM

4598

OptionProbability

2027 Onwards

Jul 2026 - Dec 2026

Nov 2025 - Dec 2025

Jan 2026 - Jun 2026

85

12

2

2

When will OpenAI achieve the capacity to produce 1 gigawatt of AI infrastructure weekly?

Sep 23, 3:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8582

OptionProbability

Before 2051

Before 2042

Before 2036

Before 2032

Before 2028

50

48

40

31

16

Iranian fuel & gunpowder factory explosions caused by foreign actors?

Apr 29, 4:29 PMDec 31, 5:07 PM

21.44%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

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