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Prediction markets for AI for Business

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.38%chance

397182825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7291

1597

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.02%chance

379157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3175

315

Will GPT-5 be able to be a decent co-author?

Jun 2, 6:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.67%chance

394982

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2549

392

Will Figure AI be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 6:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69%chance

213692

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1492

670

8. OpenAI, Anthropic and other frontier labs will begin ‘moving up the stack,’ [...] building applications

Dec 27, 8:22 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

93.64%chance

163091

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3838

261

Will JEPA models become mainstream by the end of 2025?

Aug 24, 4:55 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.71%chance

213084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

787

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

58.75%chance

482425

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1246

710

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will Boeing and Airbus divest their space divisions in 2025? (Prediction from a $150M VC firm)

Jan 24, 12:52 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

29.8%chance

9958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1535

651

Will Stability AI fold by 2028?

Mar 23, 2:17 PMJan 16, 10:59 PM

82.94%chance

15860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1133

939

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4071

3711

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