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Prediction markets for AI for Business

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.06%chance

8213590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5293

2022

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

55.58%chance

656578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1176

762

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.68%chance

4780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4261

3904

If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?

Apr 7, 6:10 PMApr 7, 6:08 PM

63.89%chance

3417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

24

14

14

14

14

9

9

Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?

Jan 9, 2:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22%chance

11264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

“Will the AI carbon emissions tracking SaaS reach 300 paying business customers by 31 Dec 2027?”

Jan 12, 5:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

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