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Prediction markets for AI for Business

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?

Apr 7, 6:10 PMApr 7, 6:08 PM

63.89%chance

3417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions

Feb 25, 4:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

2343

OptionProbability

>=2032

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

24

14

14

14

14

9

9

Will the AI-based carbon emissions tracking startup reach 100 paying business customers by December 31, 2026?

Jan 9, 2:42 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

22%chance

11264

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Before 2028, will an AI-run business make at least $10,000 revenue and $1,000 profit in a month?

Sep 23, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.23%chance

3141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

“Will the AI carbon emissions tracking SaaS reach 300 paying business customers by 31 Dec 2027?”

Jan 12, 5:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will AI-powered tools become the main way businesses find B2B contacts by 2028?

Oct 6, 6:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Saudi Aramco Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:04 PMMar 8, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 90

90 - 99

100 - 109

110 - 119

120 - 130

Above 130

17

17

17

17

17

17

What month do you think that Barracuda 2.0 in Okeechobee Florida closes down as in out of business or sold?

Oct 6, 4:38 PMOct 6, 4:36 PM

00

OptionProbability

October

November

December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

17

17

17

17

17

17

Will Chevron Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 58

58 - 59.9

60 - 61.9

62 - 63.9

64 - 65.9

66+

17

17

17

17

17

17

Are you using AI ("artificial intelligence") in your trade or business?

Nov 2, 7:14 PMDec 2, 7:09 PM

170

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