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Prediction markets for AI Futures Fund

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.25%chance

325859713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7539

3536

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5080

3679

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

235623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1883

531

How much longtermist value will I net, from 2023 to 2030, in LTFF 2022 dollars?

Aug 19, 6:54 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

121941

OptionProbability

$100K to $1M

$1M to $10M

-$100K to -$1M

-$100K to +$100k

$10M to $100M

-$10M to -$100M

-$1M to -$10M

$100M+

<-$100M

36

30

9

8

4

3

3

3

2

Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?

Feb 8, 4:07 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

96.46%chance

291493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

522

19

[Carlini questions] A highly-popular SOTA AI system is supported by advertising

Mar 24, 2:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3814

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

94

93

93

92

4

When will the first prediction market ETF launch?

Apr 29, 1:08 AMJul 2, 3:59 AM

4521

OptionProbability

May 5-11 2026

May 12-18 2026

May 19-25 2026

May 26-June 1 2026

39

20

20

20

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

4122

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

48

26

8

6

5

3

3

Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.23%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

153

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