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Prediction markets for AI Futures Fund

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.28%chance

344879198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4502

3083

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4159

4150

How much longtermist value will I net, from 2023 to 2030, in LTFF 2022 dollars?

Aug 19, 6:54 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

121941

OptionProbability

$100K to $1M

$1M to $10M

-$100K to -$1M

-$100K to +$100k

$10M to $100M

-$10M to -$100M

-$1M to -$10M

$100M+

<-$100M

36

30

9

8

4

3

3

3

2

MNX Launch Date?

Jul 12, 12:27 AMAug 11, 12:23 AM

201904

OptionProbability

Before 11/1/2026

Before 12/1/2026

Before 8/1/2026

Before 9/1/2026

Before 10/1/2026

98

98

0

0

0

[Carlini questions] A highly-popular SOTA AI system is supported by advertising

Mar 24, 2:28 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3814

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

94

93

93

92

4

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

If I apply for funding from the LTFF before 2028, will I get accepted?

Jan 7, 11:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.69%chance

3249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

805

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

5129

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

44

23

10

8

7

4

3

Will S-risk prevention get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 31, 3:56 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

60.23%chance

6111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

222

153

WILL AMARANTH FOUNDATION FUND TK Kozai by EOY2030?

May 21, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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