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AI Governance and Policy News

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.52%chance

3826421

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1294

776

Will more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?

Jun 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 11:00 AM

6.58%chance

3811521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3767

265

If Labour wins the 2026 NZ general election, they are dependent on support from Te Pāti Māori to govern

Mar 21, 5:34 PMNov 21, 11:59 PM

94.7%chance

104921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4227

237

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.77%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

637

Will a single parent in Brazil earn at least one minimum wage from Bolsa Família by 2029?

Sep 25, 11:44 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6.39%chance

72644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4431

11

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27%chance

552307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

892

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

131949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

410

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.09%chance

141245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

784

By 2028, will anyone do a terrorist attack against AI capabilities researchers that is plausibly attributable to Yud?

Mar 31, 6:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.98%chance

321022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1587

879

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.13%chance

24783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

892

Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?

Feb 9, 3:14 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

38.89%chance

21491

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

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