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Prediction markets for AI Grant

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

53%chance

278453833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6266

2810

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.63%chance

21738488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6491

4006

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.38%chance

826975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1850

1053

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

87.09%chance

544094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10078

9989

Will Benjamin Netanyahu still be Prime Minister at the end of 2026?

Feb 13, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.75%chance

224093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

995

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

47%chance

343014

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

942

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

582202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

1058

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

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