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Prediction markets for AI Grant

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

90.65%chance

336646894

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13097

3397

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

4765967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130486

84436

Will an AI be granted legal personhood in any country by end of 2030?

May 19, 6:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.44%chance

21838538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6541

3993

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

92.89%chance

7016553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17762

9261

Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Apr 20, 12:21 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.11%chance

836987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1047

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.87%chance

423741

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

632

Will betting in or subsidizing specific prediction markets be an EA cause area by 2030?

Nov 15, 3:55 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

19.68%chance

323696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4041

1942

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

592227

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1395

1058

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

What dollar amount of grants will Coefficient Giving's Navigating Transformative AI fund list in 2026?

Apr 12, 8:47 AMApr 12, 10:59 PM

2510

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 10,000,000

Above 20,000,000

Above 30,000,000

Above 40,000,000

Above 50,000,000

99

92

89

85

80

75

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

986

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