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Prediction markets for AI Institute

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2%chance

171138197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

76985

2163

Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?

Oct 1, 3:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31%chance

18783544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4803

133

If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?

Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.79%chance

387401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11726

7606

Where will I work on 2025-11-01?

Nov 1, 2:20 PMNov 2, 6:59 AM

102050

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Other

Google DeepMind

Alphabet but not Google DeepMind

Anthropic

xAI

I will not be employed

The Center for Humane Technology

Protocol Labs

Center for AI Safety

Alignment Research Center

MIRI

Future of Life Institute

Ought

METR

AI Safety Institute

WIkimedia Foundation

Mozilla Foundation

OpenStreetMap Foundation

50

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Will the US AI Safety Institute be rebranded as the AI Security Institute by the end of 2025?

Feb 14, 6:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.7%chance

5440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

407

25

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

Will Canada have an AI Safety Institute before the end of 2025?

Nov 4, 10:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.12%chance

5180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

64

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

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