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Prediction markets for AI Labs

What will be the top 3 AI labs in 2025?

Aug 26, 1:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

327102069

OptionProbability

Google Deepmind

OpenAI

Anthropic

XAI

Meta

Deepseek

Safe Superintelligence Inc

Huggingfaces

Tesla

Keen

CommaAI

stability.ai

Hugging Face

🤗 (hugging face)

HuggingFace (🤗)

~~Google~~ [SEE GOOGLE DEEPMIND]

Replit

Conjecture

Character.AI

Adept

NVIDIA

Apple

Midjourney

MosaicML

inflection.ai

Mistral AI

Moonshot AI

Huawei

Microsoft

ByteDance

ModelBest面壁智能

Singularity Net

High-Flyer

Alibaba

Reflection AI

Manus AI

Thinking Machines

Krantz

Other

38

32

14

5

4

4

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.15%chance

16150732

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10883

1997

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

45.55%chance

14617629

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10157

9791

In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?

Mar 25, 1:29 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

174419

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 5, 5:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

32.64%chance

293276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

696

Will the US government require AI labs to run safety/alignment evals by 2025?

Mar 21, 11:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.9%chance

462969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1429

844

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

302531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

Will SNL make a sketch involving any big AI lab before the end of 2025?

Feb 7, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.43%chance

151833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

Will a top US AI lab be nationalized by 2030?

Aug 27, 3:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.05%chance

291018

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

813

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73%chance

11483

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

932

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

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