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Prediction markets for AI Office

Will ChatGPT or another AI tool be officially integrated into WhatsApp by May 2026?

Feb 15, 8:02 PMMay 31, 7:49 PM

36.81%chance

196475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

292

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Sep 28, 8:53 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22.74%chance

502900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2431

1289

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Jan 30, 9:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.06%chance

562867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

730

When will AI be able to solve 50% of official Jane Street puzzles?

Mar 3, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

302616

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

72

56

32

0

0

Will the creators of "South Park" both be killed by AI before "South Park" is officially cancelled?

Mar 24, 9:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.3%chance

132181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2332

878

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

By 2030, will an AI be officially designated as the patent holder for an invention?

May 19, 6:49 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

24.14%chance

551295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

985

Will any AI or algorithm be elected as a state official by 2040 with 10.000 or more votes?

Dec 16, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.63%chance

301094

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

970

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.97%chance

11799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1364

733

Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 19, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.97%chance

6272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

440

121

In which year will an AI-generated movie become the first major box office success?

Apr 2, 2:27 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6272

OptionProbability

2031-2035

2036-2040

2028-2030

2041-2045

2025-2027

2046-2050

38

16

15

14

9

8

Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?

Mar 9, 7:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.06%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

135

107

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