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AI or Not News

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.23%chance

452112383476

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27374

17279

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

100110402822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31069

8145

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.52%chance

8154171722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3835

1773

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.93%chance

27022466295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14996

1282

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.6%chance

988744286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10662

9287

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.46%chance

630671922

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5352

4554

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.7%chance

835518679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58873

10436

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49%chance

563470447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3111

2039

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.18%chance

369286789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2761

998

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.52%chance

209282721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4337

1310

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89%chance

526216209

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12091

5829

AI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035

Jul 12, 12:29 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

38.68%chance

9734296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1173

318

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