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AI or Not News

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.66%chance

442912024377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29566

16429

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

95.02%chance

9869796970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

25468

8406

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.9%chance

8144171111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3498

1824

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.28%chance

26712400785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15217

1255

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.86%chance

983744074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10719

9239

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.86%chance

615651684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5682

4007

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

65.56%chance

298534392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5399

4087

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.84%chance

832515935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58313

10496

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.5%chance

553464228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2901

2279

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.53%chance

209282716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4332

1311

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60%chance

351261778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1913

1396

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.6%chance

365203935

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5794

4777

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