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AI or Not News

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.59%chance

448712290388

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25585

18060

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

99910348624

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31064

8145

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.88%chance

8144171116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3503

1823

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

87.12%chance

26892447030

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13978

1420

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.68%chance

985744202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10678

9273

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39%chance

619656532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5617

4107

Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?

Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM

88.48%chance

336644389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11092

3630

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.67%chance

556467615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2818

2386

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.52%chance

209282721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4337

1310

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.87%chance

354261898

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2038

1317

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

82.44%chance

415213309

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16343

7975

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