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Prediction markets for AI or Not

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.02%chance

462013854671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23934

18865

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96.01%chance

100610473218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31164

8141

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

May 5, 11:03 AMJan 2, 1:16 AM

5%chance

11247425067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7014

2095

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100

Feb 4, 10:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.56%chance

8164171923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3575

1811

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94%chance

27142541459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

19680

863

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2040?

Mar 11, 5:11 PMJan 2, 10:00 AM

7.95%chance

4791716858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4948

1796

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

995746565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10534

9400

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31%chance

642683358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5223

5020

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?

Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79%chance

376313607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

900

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.35%chance

210282771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4387

1304

In 2028, will at least 350,000 Americans (1/1000) be talking at least weekly to an AI they consider a romantic companion?

Feb 20, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

88.71%chance

526216469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11814

5864

Rogue AIs before 2028?

Aug 31, 5:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.33%chance

19334102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14640

8433

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