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Prediction markets for AI Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

14.99%chance

14969486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2334

1409

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14534927

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

33

11

6

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.04%chance

3518595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22880

4371

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1792

1322

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.24%chance

1013752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

1542

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

Mar 30, 11:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.07%chance

592516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1079

947

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Nov 9, 2:56 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

30.02%chance

311983

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

959

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

411897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

815

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.81%chance

361276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

720

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

981

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

59.72%chance

31917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

822

Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030?

Jun 25, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.14%chance

13569

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

932

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