AI Research News

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

79.16%chance

22182999

OptionVotes

YES

3814

509

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7.3%chance

5140449

OptionVotes

YES

35644

2806

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735098

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 9:01 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

65.35%chance

10012641

OptionVotes

YES

1169

822

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

2241

1226

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

25.88%chance

1033852

OptionVotes

YES

1878

1440

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

Mar 31, 3:47 AMMar 31, 3:40 AM

113035

OptionProbability

AI research completely automated by April 2028

AI researchers reduced to "generation of novel research ideas" by end of 2026

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

411897

OptionVotes

YES

1056

815

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.91%chance

391816

OptionVotes

YES

1221

667

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Dec 19, 4:37 AMJul 4, 6:59 AM

22.35%chance

181105

OptionVotes

YES

1698

130

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

1039

981

Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?

Oct 2, 1:01 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

29.2%chance

8691

OptionVotes

YES

1055

852

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Prediction markets for AI Research

Prediction markets for AI Research

Prediction markets for AI Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?

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