AI Research News

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

15.94%chance

15970513

OptionVotes

YES

2206

1432

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14735087

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2030

2031

2029

2028

2032

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

18.05%chance

3920302

OptionVotes

YES

21309

4693

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.31%chance

756761

OptionVotes

YES

1841

1310

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.5%chance

1023802

OptionVotes

YES

1828

1592

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

Mar 30, 11:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.1%chance

612570

OptionVotes

YES

1118

933

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Nov 9, 2:56 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

30.82%chance

321994

OptionVotes

YES

1000

934

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

411897

OptionVotes

YES

1056

815

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.02%chance

381598

OptionVotes

YES

1002

985

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

56.48%chance

31967

OptionVotes

YES

1131

753

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

71.61%chance

29939

OptionVotes

YES

1039

981

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

Mar 31, 3:47 AMMar 31, 3:40 AM

5775

OptionProbability

AI research completely automated by April 2028

AI researchers reduced to "generation of novel research ideas" by end of 2026

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Prediction markets for AI Research

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Prediction markets for AI Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Will AI research be automated within the next 2 years?

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