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Prediction markets for AI Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

20.85%chance

13356459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1711

1543

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14334752

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2032

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

34

11

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

23.1%chance

3010984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18243

5482

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

29.43%chance

806996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1905

448

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.21%chance

983383

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1883

1419

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.02%chance

582542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1867

1852

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Dec 23, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.41%chance

411897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

815

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61%chance

32757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1078

853

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

65.12%chance

28746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

763

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.7%chance

2400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2198

1820

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