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Prediction markets for AI Research

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM

12.07%chance

14668226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2833

1331

Neural nets will out-perform AI researchers on peer review by end of 2025.

May 5, 5:47 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

64%chance

13439607

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

619

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.68%chance

2236231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

34661

2885

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Jul 2, 11:10 AMFeb 16, 1:48 PM

14334752

OptionProbability

Some year after 2040.

AGI will end humanity before such a consensus will be reached

2029

2030

2028

2031

Such a consensus will never be reached because such an AI is not possible to create

2025

2026

2027

2032

2033

2024

2034

2037

2023

2035

2036

2038

2039

2040

34

11

6

6

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Apr 28, 9:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.28%chance

3517595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21880

4570

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Mar 5, 8:31 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

19.73%chance

807546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2305

320

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.63%chance

1003598

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1892

1395

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?

Jul 11, 6:00 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.32%chance

42950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4370

915

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.97%chance

592547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1872

1851

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.81%chance

361276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

720

Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?

Mar 5, 8:32 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

65.12%chance

28746

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

763

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