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AI Risks News

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64%chance

25317966

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2476

1753

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.47%chance

387402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2643

378

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

71.9%chance

774062

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

1159

Will AI lead to an S-risk by 2100?

Dec 23, 6:24 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.23%chance

163587

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

972

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.12%chance

491707

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

874

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

241567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

5805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

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