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Prediction markets for AI Safety Institute

Will CAISI have a Wikipedia page throughout December 2026?

Jul 2, 11:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.21%chance

102486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1357

737

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

8940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

9340

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

70

18

12

If a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?

Feb 26, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.82%chance

4286

OptionVotes

NO

YES

658

353

Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2027?

Jun 30, 9:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4240

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Other

54

23

23

How difficult will Anthropic say the AI alignment problem is?

Aug 8, 7:48 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

8170

OptionProbability

Intermediate scenario

No such statement before 2030

Optimistic scenario

Pessimistic scenario

65

21

11

4

Will the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?

Apr 8, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.05%chance

5158

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Rogue SOTA AI autonomously surviving and replicating for at least three months by EOY 2030?

Sep 27, 7:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Conditional on a global pause before strong AGI, how long in total will there be a pause on frontier training?

Aug 17, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

645

OptionProbability

6 to 24 months

Less than 6 months

2 to 5 years

5+ years

36

30

19

16

Will the US launch a Manhattan Project / Apollo Program for AI safety by EOY 2030?

Jun 21, 10:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will there be Nuremberg 2.0 over AI technology before 2060?

Nov 3, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

21.18%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

31

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

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