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Prediction markets for AI² Robotics

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

348890

OptionProbability

Bitcoin + AI

AI + Medicine

Bitcoin + XR

AI + Robotics

Fintech + AI

AI + Internet

AI + Physics

AI + VR

XR + AI

BCI + Internet

Haptics + BCI

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

BCI + Remote sensing

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

AI+Blockchain

BCI + Dating Apps

Vertical farming + Solar

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

81

62

60

59

52

40

32

30

24

23

17

15

14

9

8

5

5

5

When will OpenAI Announce AI Robots?

Feb 26, 1:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

483215

OptionProbability

2026

Not before 2027

2025

2024

39

38

20

2

When will the first murder of a civilian happen in a US city by a robot or AI device where an operator is not nearby

Aug 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

142969

OptionProbability

In or after 2025

In or after 2030

In or after 2040

In or after 2050

In 2024

99

56

45

23

0

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.01%chance

562081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

1104

Will any country recognize AI or robots as non human persons with legal rights before the end of 2055?

Mar 18, 5:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.23%chance

211404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1380

523

Will the 3 laws of robotics be used as a framework for an AGI or advanced AI by 2030?

Jan 6, 9:05 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

15.49%chance

20819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

898

Will an AI or robot be charged with sexual assault or another sexual crime before the end of 2026?

Oct 25, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.47%chance

19532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

380

26

Will the position of AI Humanoid Robots Supervisor exist and be hot by 2028?

Jan 31, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.93%chance

15513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

932

By 2027, will an AI-driven robot (maybe humanoid) conduct a full symphony orchestra in a live public performance?

May 19, 3:42 PMJan 1, 6:29 AM

19.6%chance

10184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

167

Will AI be capable of fast self improvement before physical AI robots are massively used for improving AI capabilities?

Nov 9, 12:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

87.32%chance

8174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

268

59

Will there be a high-street retail outlet successfully running with only robotic and AI systems, for at least a week without intervention from a physically-present person, before 2027?

Jan 26, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

6108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

152

114

By 2035, will AI+robotics make it possible to have kids without taking care of them? (esp if the parents have ADHD?)

Apr 12, 2:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.15%chance

553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

111

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