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Prediction markets for AIM

Will any organisation launch a mission with the aim of adjusting the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4?

Feb 1, 12:38 AMDec 23, 3:59 PM

2.41%chance

168053

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6359

157

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

What will my 2027 AIME I score be?

Jun 26, 7:19 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

191160

OptionProbability

5 or 6

7 or 8

9 or 10

3 or 4

11

N/A

1 or 2

0

46

22

9

8

5

5

3

2

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch get into YC before EOY 2027?

Mar 15, 11:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.16%chance

7301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

336

55

Will "Aim for single piece flow" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 8:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will Buzzy2 make AIME

Aug 8, 5:33 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

48.3%chance

6240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 10, 6:10 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.76%chance

6240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

972

What will (top 1% 2026 AMC 12A) + 10 * (top 5% 2027 AIME I) be?

May 28, 7:07 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

10235

OptionProbability

(260,270]

(270,280]

(280,290]

(250,260]

[0,250]

(290,300]

32

31

14

10

8

6

Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?

Jul 20, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.73%chance

11119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

>10% of companies (>12 months old) from AIM's Founding to Give get into YC before EOY 2030?

Mar 15, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

2110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

67

Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch lead to an exit with donations >$1M before EOY 2036?

Mar 15, 11:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.58%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

107

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