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Prediction markets for AIM

AIME cutoff for MAA AMC 10A in 2025?

Nov 6, 5:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3125889

OptionProbability

93

91.5

97.5 or above

90

88.5

94.5

96

84

87

81 or lower

85.5

82.5

36

26

8

7

6

6

4

2

2

1

1

0

Will any organisation launch a mission with the aim of adjusting the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4?

Feb 1, 12:38 AMDec 23, 3:59 PM

2.37%chance

167997

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6416

156

2025 AMC 12B AIME cutoff?

Nov 15, 2:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

112544

OptionProbability

84 - 90

Above 90

76.5 - 82.5

Below 76.5

95

3

2

0

Edward Jiang makes AIME 2026?

Oct 27, 5:12 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

24.35%chance

72259

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

57

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.14%chance

291516

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1761

662

What will be the 2026 USAMO cutoff for AMC 12 B and AIME I?

Nov 14, 3:27 PMMar 14, 10:59 PM

4982

OptionProbability

365 - 369.5

360 - 364.5

370 - 374.5

Above 374.5

355 - 359.5

350 - 354.5

Below 330

330 - 334.5

335 - 339.5

340 - 344.5

345 - 349.5

32

23

15

9

6

3

2

2

2

2

2

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

What will be the minimum AIME score of the 15 people who qualify for USAMO through USAMTS but not AMC?

Sep 1, 8:05 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

11362

OptionProbability

12

13

1-11

14-15

31

30

24

15

Will "Aim for single piece flow" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 8:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

>10% of companies (>12 months old) from AIM's Founding to Give get into YC before EOY 2030?

Mar 15, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

82

Will I qualify for AIME through USAMTS?

Nov 16, 8:33 PMJan 14, 8:32 PM

52.44%chance

229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch lead to an exit with donations >$1M before EOY 2036?

Mar 15, 11:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.58%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

107

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