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Prediction markets for AIM

Will any organisation launch a mission with the aim of adjusting the orbit of asteroid 2024 YR4?

Feb 1, 12:38 AMDec 23, 3:59 PM

2.37%chance

167998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6415

156

What will be the 2026 USAMO cutoff for AMC 12 B and AIME I?

Nov 14, 3:27 PMMar 14, 1:00 AM

192794

OptionProbability

Above 374.5

370 - 374.5

365 - 369.5

Below 330

355 - 359.5

360 - 364.5

330 - 334.5

335 - 339.5

340 - 344.5

345 - 349.5

350 - 354.5

86

8

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Edward Jiang makes AIME 2026?

Oct 27, 5:12 AMMar 30, 11:59 PM

55.27%chance

102443

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will the cutoff for 2026 USAMO with AMC 12 A and AIME I be 390?

Dec 22, 3:04 PMFeb 20, 11:59 PM

27.41%chance

261776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

61

Will I pass the AIME?

Jan 31, 8:38 PMMar 15, 11:59 PM

11.07%chance

191655

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

35

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.4%chance

291532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1745

666

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will "Aim for single piece flow" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 8:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

What will my AIME I 2026 score be?

Jan 27, 11:14 PMJan 28, 7:59 AM

5155

OptionProbability

Above 10

Above 11

Above 12

Above 13

73

54

36

16

Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch get into YC before EOY 2027?

Mar 15, 11:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.29%chance

5145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

97

what will i get on the 2026 AIME I?

Feb 4, 4:50 AMFeb 6, 4:48 AM

230

OptionProbability

<7

8-11

>12

35

35

31

Any company from AIM's Founding to Give's first batch lead to an exit with donations >$1M before EOY 2036?

Mar 15, 11:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.58%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

107

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