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Prediction markets for AIM Institute

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

12.34%chance

131360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

266

38

Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?

Jan 2, 10:00 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

26.25%chance

24984

OptionVotes

YES

NO

279

157

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11946

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

34

25

9

6

5

5

5

5

4

4

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.32%chance

22745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

647

Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?

Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.58%chance

17434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

306

120

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

Adult tooth regrowth commercially available in 2035?

Jun 27, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.51%chance

10115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

71

Most likely outcome for the United States in next 6 years

Jun 9, 7:41 PMJun 9, 7:37 PM

8110

OptionProbability

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)

Fractured Nation (states split into blocs)

42

31

16

7

3

China's recycled aluminium production exceeds 15M tonnes in 2027?

Nov 26, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.25%chance

787

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

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