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Prediction markets for AIM Institute

Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?

Mar 3, 2:11 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

383105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6.2%chance

171806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

389

26

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?

Jan 2, 10:00 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

25.69%chance

25991

OptionVotes

YES

NO

284

155

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.32%chance

22745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

647

Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?

Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.58%chance

17434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

306

120

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

If a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?

Feb 26, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.05%chance

4265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

637

368

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

7261

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

70

16

14

China's recycled aluminium production exceeds 15M tonnes in 2027?

Nov 26, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.71%chance

8191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

Most likely outcome for the United States in next 6 years

Jun 9, 7:41 PMJun 9, 7:37 PM

8110

OptionProbability

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)

Fractured Nation (states split into blocs)

42

31

16

7

3

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

56.48%chance

451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

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