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Prediction markets for AIM Institute

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

32.74%chance

122181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5594

2925

German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)

Oct 27, 10:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6.53%chance

171817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

26

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?

Jan 2, 10:00 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

18.43%chance

311179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

368

132

Will there be a significant breakthrough in nuclear fusion technology by the end of 2030?

Dec 17, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.32%chance

23755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

621

Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?

Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.58%chance

17434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

306

120

If AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?

Mar 17, 3:52 AMMar 17, 3:51 AM

8290

OptionProbability

Superintelligent

Superhuman

Below- or par- human

67

20

14

The US becomes much more like Shadowrun by the end of 2029

Jan 1, 3:56 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.12%chance

2274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

802

China's recycled aluminium production exceeds 15M tonnes in 2027?

Nov 26, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.71%chance

8191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

Most likely outcome for the United States in next 6 years

Jun 9, 7:41 PMJun 9, 7:37 PM

13141

OptionProbability

Weakened Democracy (Failed Authoritarianism)

Full Democratic Restoration

Hybrid Authoritarianism (Turkey)

Full Authoritarianism (Russia/NK)

Fractured Nation (states split into blocs)

51

25

15

6

3

Adult tooth regrowth commercially available in 2035?

Jun 27, 3:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.28%chance

10118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

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