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Prediction markets for Aim Security

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.38%chance

176141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5347

187

Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?

Mar 3, 2:11 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

3.58%chance

383090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

519

19

Which countries will assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing hostilities?

Mar 16, 6:26 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

252388

OptionProbability

Turkey

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Bahrain

Uk

United Kingdom

Pakistan

France

Iraq

Canada

Australia

India

Germany

Japan

South Korea

Italy

Netherlands

Greece

Singapore

Oman

China

Spain

66

65

63

54

54

50

35

30

18

17

16

11

11

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

7

4

4

Will the United States Midterm Elections be free and fair?

Feb 25, 3:42 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

32%chance

201103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

69

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

Will the DRC's copper supply capacity exceed 1.5 million tonnes annually by 2027 due to US mineral deals?

Feb 9, 6:02 PMFeb 9, 6:01 PM

46.95%chance

21054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

958

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

Next female F1 driver what year?

Jul 27, 10:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4820

OptionProbability

2030-2039

Other

2029

2028

2027

2025

2026

39

37

13

6

3

1

1

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

When will the Finnish citizens’ initiative on Digital Independence reach 50,000 signatures?

Feb 22, 6:24 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

7667

OptionProbability

Before Aug 2026

Before Sep 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Mar 2026

97

97

85

31

10

3

0

Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.2%chance

6116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

146

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

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