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Prediction markets for Aim Security

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.69%chance

186390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5110

196

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

17.83%chance

134384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2147

466

Which countries will assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during ongoing hostilities?

Mar 16, 6:26 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

374344

OptionProbability

United Arab Emirates

Uk

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

Bahrain

United Kingdom

Oman

Iraq

Turkey

Singapore

India

Canada

Pakistan

Australia

Japan

France

Germany

South Korea

China

Italy

Spain

Greece

Netherlands

63

50

29

19

19

13

13

13

12

10

9

7

7

6

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

What will be the first metal Trump officially requests for Project Vault?

May 21, 6:20 PMDec 31, 6:37 PM

74271

OptionProbability

Gallium

Germanium

Neodymium

Antimony

Dysprosium

Terbium

Yttrium

Indium

Tantalum

Rhenium

Tellurium

Samarium

Silver

13

13

13

8

8

7

7

6

5

5

5

5

4

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.04%chance

213320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3203

822

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

1.94%chance

643034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

710

14

Will the DRC's copper supply capacity exceed 1.5 million tonnes annually by 2027 due to US mineral deals?

Feb 9, 6:02 PMFeb 9, 6:01 PM

48.12%chance

31076

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

933

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026

Apr 29, 1:07 AMApr 29, 3:59 AM

4400

OptionProbability

500M - 999.9M

100M - 499.9M

0 - 99.9M

1B - 4.99B

5B - 10B

Above 10B

38

27

17

6

6

6

Will Canada pass Bill C-22 in 2026?

May 20, 7:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.8%chance

5132

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

47

Will POTUS issue an executive order aiming to mitigate security risks associated with open-source AI models before 2027?

Jul 20, 8:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.73%chance

11119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will Israel hand over Hamas-free parts of Gaza to Trump's ISF?

Oct 20, 12:40 AMOct 7, 7:02 PM

51%chance

453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

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