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Prediction markets for Aim Security

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins a seat in Congress in 2026

Jul 9, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.7%chance

176384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5104

196

Elon elected to public office as America Party member?

Jul 6, 7:05 PMDec 31, 8:04 PM

1.92%chance

643029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

715

14

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

Will the DRC's copper supply capacity exceed 1.5 million tonnes annually by 2027 due to US mineral deals?

Feb 9, 6:02 PMFeb 9, 6:01 PM

46.95%chance

21054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

958

When will the Finnish citizens’ initiative on Digital Independence reach 50,000 signatures?

Feb 22, 6:24 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

71027

OptionProbability

Before Sep 2026

Before Aug 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Jun 2026

Before May 2026

Before Apr 2026

Before Mar 2026

99

98

95

66

7

1

0

US Crypto reserve hacked or disappeared before January 20, 2029?

Mar 25, 1:45 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

31.02%chance

8917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1491

671

AUM of all prediction market ETFs by end of August 2026

Apr 29, 1:07 AMApr 29, 3:59 AM

4400

OptionProbability

500M - 999.9M

100M - 499.9M

0 - 99.9M

1B - 4.99B

5B - 10B

Above 10B

38

27

17

6

6

6

Will the UK declare a special economic zone before 2035?

May 11, 1:55 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

45.67%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

109

92

Will the US establish a clear AI developer liability framework for AI harms by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.2%chance

6116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148

146

Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries

Mar 4, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

4115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the US fund defensive information security R&D for limiting unintended proliferation of dangerous AI models by 2028

Apr 28, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

115

Will Israel hand over Hamas-free parts of Gaza to Trump's ISF?

Oct 20, 12:40 AMOct 7, 7:02 PM

50%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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