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Air Global News

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1218930

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

JetBlue

Bermudair

Frontier

Avelo

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

21

18

8

6

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

[ACX 2026] What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?

Jan 7, 12:00 AMJan 7, 7:59 AM

129134

OptionProbability

1.40 - 1.50°C

1.30 - 1.40°C

1.50 - 1.60°C

1.20 - 1.30°C

1.60 - 1.70°C

Below 1.2°C

1.70 - 1.75°C

Above 1.75°C

47

25

14

5

5

2

1

1

Will a major world war occur before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 6:43 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.4%chance

512187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

751

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.62%chance

71465

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2417

414

Will Hanoi ban gas powered bikes within Ring Roads 1 within one year?

Jul 15, 10:32 PMJul 15, 10:28 PM

49.66%chance

3661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

993

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

Will the WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines set stricter recommendations for PM2.5 and PM10 air pollution before 2030?

Feb 28, 12:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.81%chance

8519

OptionVotes

NO

YES

961

442

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will the share of population exposed to high levels of air pollution fall below 15% by 2030?

Mar 11, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.8%chance

5252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

249

137

Will a top-20 Super Bowl advertiser air a primarily AI-generated commercial during Super Bowl LXI (Feb 2027)?

Apr 17, 9:34 PMMar 5, 12:00 PM

35.18%chance

670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

170

How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045?

May 29, 12:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.97%chance

344

OptionProbability

NO

YES

300

257

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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