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Prediction markets for Airline

When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?

Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1297277

OptionProbability

Other

Q4 2025

Q3 2025

Q2 2025

Q1 2024

Q4 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

44

24

22

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

8610738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

879

Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030

Apr 2, 11:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12%chance

179826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

943

When will Frontier airlines fly its first flight using the A321XLR plane?

Nov 22, 6:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57225

OptionProbability

Other

Q3 2025

Q4 2025

Q2 2025

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

46

25

18

5

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?

Mar 29, 2:11 AMDec 1, 5:00 PM

4.7%chance

264482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2094

713

Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?

Feb 3, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.18%chance

312018

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

683

Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 10:52 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.67%chance

191858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2087

479

Which will be the next three airlines to operate a supersonic airliner?

Dec 9, 2:03 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

121323

OptionProbability

United Airlines

Japan Airlines

SpaceX Airlines

Alaska Airlines

British Airways

Air France

Hawaiian Airlines

All Nippon Airways

Air China

China Eastern Airlines

Cathay Pacific

Singapore Airlines

KLM Royal Dutch Airlines

China Southern Airlines

American Airlines

Delta Air Lines

52

36

33

29

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

18

16

Will the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 be found in the Penang Latitude Hole?

Sep 12, 6:04 AMNov 30, 10:59 PM

28.42%chance

12910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1574

643

Will the Alaska 737 MAX depressurization incident substantially impact Alaska’s acquisition of Hawaiian airlines?

Jan 7, 2:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

18623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

951

Will a commercial airline have an eVTOL in use on a working public route by the end of 2026?

Jul 8, 6:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.76%chance

11533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

405

25

Will one of the Big Four airlines go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before EOY 2026?

Dec 24, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.18%chance

10198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

270

148

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