Airlines News

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1117551

OptionProbability

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Bermudair

JetBlue

Avelo

Frontier

Allegiant Air

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

ANA

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Air New Zealand

Breeze

Sun Country

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

1816

965

Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030

Apr 2, 11:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.19%chance

1810529

OptionVotes

YES

1293

908

What exactly caused the 737MAX Alaska Airlines rapid depressurisation incident?

Jan 6, 10:56 PMFeb 28, 10:59 PM

377484

OptionProbability

Improperly secured door plug

Improperly secured bolt or connector

Negligence by Boeing

Negligence by a Maintenance and Repair Contractor other than Alaska/Hawaiian Airlines

Negligence by Alaska Airlines

Negligence by a parts supplier (other than Boeing)

Unspecified general Design Flaw

Excessive cabin pressurization: fault in pressurization system, air pressure sensors or software controlling cabin pressure

Will the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 be found in the Penang Longitude Hole?

Sep 12, 6:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.36%chance

193119

OptionVotes

YES

3115

331

Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?

Feb 3, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.33%chance

312618

OptionVotes

YES

1991

460

Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 10:52 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.36%chance

232477

OptionVotes

YES

2794

358

Will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be found in 2026?

Jan 28, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.51%chance

162073

OptionVotes

YES

2086

493

Will one of the Big Four airlines go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before EOY 2026?

Dec 24, 9:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19%chance

15644

OptionVotes

YES

328

132

Will any "DEI hire" pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?

Jan 15, 7:58 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.4%chance

15415

OptionVotes

YES

146

114

Will season 3 of The Rehearsal be about airline safety?

Jul 16, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:16 PM

14.03%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

248

Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before May?

Mar 7, 8:32 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

24.62%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

175

Airlines News

Prediction markets for Airlines

Prediction markets for Airlines

Prediction markets for Airlines

Next airline to default

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030

What exactly caused the 737MAX Alaska Airlines rapid depressurisation incident?

Will the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 be found in the Penang Longitude Hole?

Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?

Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030?

Will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be found in 2026?

Will one of the Big Four airlines go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before EOY 2026?

Will any "DEI hire" pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?

Will season 3 of The Rehearsal be about airline safety?

Will a Chinese airline announce a purchase of at least 25 Boeing aircraft before May?

Latest stories