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Prediction markets for Airlines

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1420196

OptionProbability

Frontier

No default amongst those listed before 2030

JetBlue

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

23

18

12

6

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will there be an electric* passenger airliner in commercial operation before 2028?

Jul 27, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.18%chance

8611268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

965

Will there be a fully autonomous commercial airline flight before 2030

Apr 2, 11:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.19%chance

1810529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1293

908

Will the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 be found in the Penang Longitude Hole?

Sep 12, 6:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.31%chance

203129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3125

330

Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?

Feb 3, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.33%chance

312618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

460

Will a fully adult only airline exist by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 10:52 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

11.36%chance

232477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2794

358

Will Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 be found in 2026?

Jan 28, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

172123

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2136

482

Will Boeing announce a new 797 airliner before the end of 2026?

Jan 13, 4:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.81%chance

7420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

27

Will season 3 of The Rehearsal be about airline safety?

Jul 16, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:16 PM

14.03%chance

5220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Will any major US airlines allow one free checked bag domestically by 2030?

Apr 25, 1:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.26%chance

7129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

80

Where will United Airlines' headquarters be located on January 1, 2030?

Feb 12, 7:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

2100

OptionProbability

Illinois

Colorado

55

45

When will Delta Airlines provide inflight wifi with less than 50ms of latency?

Mar 2, 4:08 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

140

OptionProbability

2036

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2026

2027

2028

20

8

8

8

8

8

8

8

7

7

7

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