Akin News

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

84.61%chance

1561087545

OptionVotes

YES

1045

776

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Jun 16, 5:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

5717571

OptionVotes

YES

1018

890

Will Maria Corina Machado ever be President of Venezuela?

Jan 3, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.33%chance

539789

OptionVotes

YES

2186

458

Are different inertial frames symmetric?

Nov 28, 3:02 PMNov 3, 2:59 PM

14.24%chance

276120

OptionVotes

YES

2012

113

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.63%chance

173003

OptionVotes

YES

1903

525

Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?

Jan 5, 1:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.45%chance

412450

OptionVotes

YES

1433

827

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

1006

987

With project 2025 on the horizon: Think we'll have situations akin to SHIMONETA occurring thanks to outlawing porn?

Jul 9, 11:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

5384

OptionProbability

The conservative party wins, and project 2025 does not come to pass

The conservative party wins, project 2025 comes to pass, and something akin to the events in Shimoneta does not occur due to the ban on pornography

The conservative party wins, project 2025 comes to pass, and something akin to the events in Shimoneta occurs due to the ban on pornography

The conservative party does not win, and project 2025 does not come to pass

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030

Mar 27, 10:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.79%chance

5313

OptionVotes

YES

369

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

66.2%chance

15304

OptionVotes

YES

1076

951

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Sep 28, 11:56 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

78.97%chance

11171

OptionVotes

YES

1120

947

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

Nov 14, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

343

OptionProbability

Other

Will a standard emerge for aggregating feeds from platforms like BlueSky, Twitter/X, and other social media platforms?

Will any major social media platform integrate zero-knowledge proofs to enhance user privacy and data control?

Will Twitter/X implement a Web3-style data control feature in Twitter/X? (must include data feed interoperability)

If Twitter/X introduces user-controlled data features, will BlueSky and Twitter/X data feeds become interoperable?

Will users be able to easily move their data between platforms?

Will user-built aggregators (akin to RSS readers) that pull in feeds from Web3-esque social media platforms becoming popular (over 50% of top 5 social media sites provide these features)?

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Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Will Maria Corina Machado ever be President of Venezuela?

Are different inertial frames symmetric?

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

With project 2025 on the horizon: Think we'll have situations akin to SHIMONETA occurring thanks to outlawing porn?

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts *everyone's* freedom by 2030

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

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AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030