Akin News

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

85%chance

1821110393

OptionVotes

YES

1042

797

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Jun 16, 5:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.42%chance

5817646

OptionVotes

YES

1059

777

Will Maria Corina Machado ever be President of Venezuela?

Jan 3, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.33%chance

539789

OptionVotes

YES

2186

458

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

1913

523

Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?

Jan 5, 1:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21.51%chance

432472

OptionVotes

YES

1429

828

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Sep 28, 11:56 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

84.89%chance

14572

OptionVotes

YES

1521

860

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

73.14%chance

16554

OptionVotes

YES

1326

843

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.85%chance

26447

OptionVotes

YES

1006

987

With project 2025 on the horizon: Think we'll have situations akin to SHIMONETA occurring thanks to outlawing porn?

Jul 9, 11:57 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

5384

OptionProbability

The conservative party wins, and project 2025 does not come to pass

The conservative party wins, project 2025 comes to pass, and something akin to the events in Shimoneta does not occur due to the ban on pornography

The conservative party wins, project 2025 comes to pass, and something akin to the events in Shimoneta occurs due to the ban on pornography

The conservative party does not win, and project 2025 does not come to pass

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030

Mar 27, 10:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.79%chance

5313

OptionVotes

YES

369

Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?

May 9, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.55%chance

14271

OptionVotes

YES

277

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

Nov 14, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

343

OptionProbability

Other

Will a standard emerge for aggregating feeds from platforms like BlueSky, Twitter/X, and other social media platforms?

Will any major social media platform integrate zero-knowledge proofs to enhance user privacy and data control?

Will Twitter/X implement a Web3-style data control feature in Twitter/X? (must include data feed interoperability)

If Twitter/X introduces user-controlled data features, will BlueSky and Twitter/X data feeds become interoperable?

Will users be able to easily move their data between platforms?

Will user-built aggregators (akin to RSS readers) that pull in feeds from Web3-esque social media platforms becoming popular (over 50% of top 5 social media sites provide these features)?

Akin News

Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Will SF homelessness be solved by 2040?

Will Maria Corina Machado ever be President of Venezuela?

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

With project 2025 on the horizon: Think we'll have situations akin to SHIMONETA occurring thanks to outlawing porn?

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts *everyone's* freedom by 2030

Will research-level math become a sport akin to chess before 2035?

Which of these social media changes will happen before EOY 2030

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AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030