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Top stories

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Signals Expansion, Geographic Realignment, Postseason Changes, and Nashville’s Franchise Bid

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Signals Expansion, Geographic Realignment, Postseason Changes, and Nashville’s Franchise Bid

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for AL

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

86.06%chance

15038818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2827

800

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29%chance

756080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2300

2259

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

959

Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?

Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.46%chance

101932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

601

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Al Gore make it to age 95?

Nov 10, 8:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.68%chance

13681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

939

Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

Dec 29, 8:34 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

87.74%chance

13618

OptionVotes

NO

YES

475

65

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.54%chance

27578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

928

Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028?

Feb 10, 1:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.52%chance

7199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

104

Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 10:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.25%chance

4158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

982

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

25.01%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

958

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

958

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