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Top stories

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Signals Expansion, Geographic Realignment, Postseason Changes, and Nashville’s Franchise Bid

MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred Signals Expansion, Geographic Realignment, Postseason Changes, and Nashville’s Franchise Bid

Authors

8

6 months ago

Prediction markets for AL

Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?

Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

86.06%chance

15038818

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2827

800

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.7%chance

705955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2407

2217

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1057

959

In what year will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark?

Jan 7, 4:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81967

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2030-2034

2026

2025

29

22

20

20

8

1

Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?

Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.46%chance

101932

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1664

601

How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)

Jul 18, 3:29 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

101376

OptionProbability

11

10

8 - 9

6 - 7

0 - 2

3 - 5

85

7

5

2

1

1

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

994

Will Al Gore make it to age 95?

Nov 10, 8:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

18.68%chance

13681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

939

Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?

Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

63.54%chance

27578

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1096

928

¿Habra mocion de censura al presidente Sanchez en España antes de Agosto del 26?

Jan 13, 9:58 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

25.91%chance

5114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?

Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

958

Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?

Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM

43.86%chance

435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

88

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