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Prediction markets for AL
Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?
Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
86.06%chance
15038818
OptionVotes
2827
800
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
27.7%chance
705955
OptionVotes
2407
2217
Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?
Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM
14.4%chance
504152
OptionVotes
1057
959
Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?
Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.46%chance
101932
OptionVotes
1664
601
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
19700
OptionVotes
1003
994
OptionVotes
1003
939
Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?
Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.54%chance
27578
OptionVotes
1096
928
OptionVotes
200
126
¿Habra mocion de censura al presidente Sanchez en España antes de Agosto del 26?
Jan 13, 9:58 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM
25.91%chance
5114
OptionVotes
169
59
Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?
Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
47.87%chance
375
OptionVotes
1043
958
Will Russia cease to recognise Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation by the end of 2026?
Mar 29, 1:29 PMDec 31, 9:00 PM
43.86%chance
435
OptionVotes
113
88
Will low-concentration cryoprotectant preserve brain rhythms in a replication study of Suda et al. 1966?
May 15, 7:30 PMMay 16, 3:59 AM
50.89%chance
320
OptionVotes
92
88