AL News
Top stories
Prediction markets for AL
Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?
Oct 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
86.06%chance
15038818
OptionVotes
2827
800
Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?
Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM
27.79%chance
715958
OptionVotes
2399
2220
Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?
Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM
14.4%chance
504152
OptionVotes
1057
959
Ahmed al Ahmed awarded Cross of Valour for disarming Bondi shooter by EOY 2026?
Dec 14, 12:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
73.46%chance
101932
OptionVotes
1664
601
How many "safe" Senate seats will Republicans win in 2026? (AL AR ID KY LA MS OK SD TN WV WY)
Jul 18, 3:29 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM
131614
OptionProbability
78
10
9
1
1
1
Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?
Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
34.04%chance
19700
OptionVotes
1003
994
OptionVotes
1003
939
Will most digital entertainment be Al generated by 2045?
Feb 6, 6:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
63.54%chance
27578
OptionVotes
1096
928
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be with Al Nassr at the end of 2026?
Feb 11, 10:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
53.47%chance
7428
OptionVotes
119
96
OptionVotes
200
126
Will "Product Alignment is not Superintelligence Al..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Apr 1, 10:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14.25%chance
4158
OptionVotes
1003
982
Will an antibiotic peptide from Santos-Junior et al 2024 be used to cure a human of an infection before 2035?
Jun 7, 7:07 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
47.87%chance
375
OptionVotes
1043
958